As climate change accelerates, much attention is given to effects like rising seas, and increased weather variability. Often overlooked is the temperature itself, and the direct impact warmer temperatures will have on our ability to maintain infrastructure, our health, agriculture, and our ability to live in certain parts of the world. As the temperature rises, so will the risk that the very fabric of modern society simply evaporates.
Subscribe now on: iTunes | Google Play | Stitcher | Soundcloud | RSS | or search "Ashes Ashes" on your favorite podcast app.
Chapters
- 08:58 How will Modern Infrastructure Adapt to Heat?
- 10:18 Transportation
- 17:45 Energy
- 22:56 Renewable Energy
- 25:24 Animals and Crops
- 32:50 Human Health
- 44:20 Pakistan and India
- 46:24 Wet-Bulb
- 52:41 Future Temperatures
- 1:01:23 Variable Benchmarks
- 1:02:53 What Can We Do?
Listener Correction:
Correction submitted by a listener with education in metallurgy and material science, and experience in a metals heat treating facility:
I wanted to correct a small detail in your show "Heat Death". ... You mentioned that rails change crystal structure in increased heat. That is not correct in the environment that rail roads would be subjected to. Steel does not undergo a phase transformation until around 1500 F (slight variations on that temperature depdning on the alloy of steel). The friction from the car moving on the rail would not generate that much heat to cause that transformation. Even if the pressures were huge it would actually suppress phase changes. ... What does cause the rails to warp from high temperatures is that the steel expands slightly. The expansion will generally happen in the direction the steel was rolled during manufacturing. Miles and miles of rails expanding along the track direction generates enough compressive stress for the steel to buckle outwards. This expansion isn't the crystal structure changing, but atoms just becoming more energetic and taking up slightly more space in their lattice multiplied by the huge number of atoms there are in rail road tracks.
Sources
Weather related deaths in the US: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/resources/weather_fatalities.pdf
Published@phdthesis{Trang_2017, place={Umeå}, series={Umeå University medical dissertations}, title={Weather and extreme heat in association to mental disorders : The case of Hanoi, Vietnam}, ISBN={978-91-7601-674-9}, url={http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-131984}, school={Umeå universitet}, author={Trang, Phan Minh}, year={2017}, collection={Umeå University medical dissertations}}
@article{abraham_varughese_thandavan_iyengar_fernando_naqvi_sheriff_ur-rashid_gopalakrishnan_kafle_et al_2015, title={Chronic kidney disease hotspots in developing countries in South Asia}, volume={9}, url={https://academic.oup.com/ckj/article/9/1/135/2462364}, DOI={10.1093/ckj/sfv109}, number={1}, journal={Clinical Kidney Journal}, author={Abraham, Georgi and Varughese, Santosh and Thandavan, Thiagarajan and Iyengar, Arpana and Fernando, Edwin and Naqvi, S. A. Jaffar and Sheriff, Rezvi and Ur-Rashid, Harun and Gopalakrishnan, Natarajan and Kafle, Rishi Kumar and et al.}, year={2015}, month={Nov}, pages={135–141}}
@misc{azhar_2017, title={How Hot Is Too Hot? Rising Temperatures and the Workplace}, url={https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/11/how-hot-is-too-hot-rising-temperatures-and-the-workplace.html}, journal={RAND Corporation}, publisher={RAND Corporation}, author={Azhar, Gulrez Shah}, year={2017}, month={Nov}}
@misc{azhar_2018, title={Staying Cool as the Globe Warms}, url={https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/04/staying-cool-as-the-globe-warms.html}, journal={RAND Corporation}, publisher={RAND Corporation}, author={Azhar, Gulrez Shah}, year={2018}, month={Apr}}
@article{añel_fernández-gonzález_labandeira_lópez-otero_torre_2017, title={Impact of Cold Waves and Heat Waves on the Energy Production Sector}, volume={8}, url={http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/11/209/pdf}, DOI={10.3390/atmos8110209}, number={12}, journal={Atmosphere}, author={Añel, Juan and Fernández-González, Manuel and Labandeira, Xavier and López-Otero, Xiral and Torre, Laura De La}, year={2017}, month={Oct}, pages={209}}
@misc{bbc staff_2013, title={Who, what, why: When does tarmac melt?}, url={http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23315384}, journal={BBC News}, publisher={BBC}, author={BBC Staff}, year={2013}, month={Jul}}
@misc{climate central_2011, title={2010 Russian Heatwave More Extreme Than Previously Thought}, url={http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/2010-russian-heatwave-more-extreme-than-previously-thought}, journal={Climate Central}, author={Climate Central}, year={2011}, month={Mar}}
@article{coffel_horton_sherbinin_2017, title={Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century}, volume={13}, url={http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e}, number={1}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, author={Coffel, Ethan D and Horton, Radley M and Sherbinin, Alex De}, year={2017}, month={Dec}, pages={014001}}
@article{coffel_thompson_horton_2017, title={The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance}, volume={144}, url={https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9}, DOI={10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9}, number={2}, journal={Climatic Change}, author={Coffel, Ethan D. and Thompson, Terence R. and Horton, Radley M.}, year={2017}, month={Jul}, pages={381–388}}
@misc{conca_2016, title={America's Heat Wave No Sweat For Nuclear Power}, url={https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/07/28/americas-heat-wave-no-sweat-for-nuclear-power/#3c912942163c}, journal={Forbes}, publisher={Forbes Magazine}, author={Conca, James}, year={2016}, month={Jul}}
@misc{erickson_phillips_2018, title={It's so hot in Australia that bats' brains are frying}, url={https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/09/its-so-hot-in-australia-that-bats-brains-are-frying/?utm_term=.bb0cc91ec48d}, journal={The Washington Post}, publisher={WP Company}, author={Erickson, Amanda and Phillips, Kristine}, year={2018}, month={Jan}}
@misc{eu science hub_2017, title={Super-heatwaves of 55°C to emerge if global warming continues - EU Science Hub - European Commission}, url={https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/super-heatwaves-55-c-emerge-if-global-warming-continues}, journal={EU SCIENCE HUB}, author={EU Science Hub}, year={2017}, month={Aug}}
@misc{garber_2012, title={Wait, Tarmac Can Melt?}, url={https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/07/wait-tarmac-can-melt/259565/}, journal={The Atlantic}, publisher={Atlantic Media Company}, author={Garber, Megan}, year={2012}, month={Jul}}
@article{gupta_2015, title={An Anthropology of Electricity from the Global South}, volume={30}, url={https://culanth.org/articles/790-an-anthropology-of-electricity-from-the-global}, DOI={10.14506/ca30.4.04}, number={4}, journal={Cultural Anthropology}, author={Gupta, Akhil}, year={2015}, month={Nov}, pages={555–568}}
@misc{heffernan_2016, title={The mystery of the expanding tropics}, url={https://www.nature.com/news/the-mystery-of-the-expanding-tropics-1.19271}, journal={Nature News}, publisher={Nature Publishing Group}, author={Heffernan, Olive}, year={2016}, month={Feb}}
@misc{iceland_otto_waite_2016, title={As Clouds Head for the Poles, Time to Prepare for Food and Water Shocks}, url={http://www.wri.org/blog/2016/07/clouds-head-poles-time-prepare-food-and-water-shocks}, journal={Shifting to Renewable Energy Can Save U.S. Consumers Money | World Resources Institute}, author={Iceland, Charles and Otto, Betsy and Waite, Richard}, year={2016}, month={Jul}}
@misc{jena_2017, title={Armed with wet sacks, India's poorest try to beat extreme heat}, url={https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heatwave-india-poverty/armed-with-wet-sacks-indias-poorest-try-to-beat-extreme-heat-idUSKCN1C000M}, journal={Reuters}, publisher={Thomson Reuters}, author={Jena, Manipadma}, year={2017}, month={Sep}}
@misc{jenkins_2017, title={Here's Why Planes Can't Take Off When It's Too Hot}, url={http://fortune.com/2017/06/20/phoenix-american-airlines-flights-cancelled-heat-wave/}, journal={Fortune}, publisher={Fortune}, author={Jenkins, Aric}, year={2017}, month={Sep}}
@misc{katz_national geographic_2016, title={Will Global Warming Heat Us Beyond Our Physical Limits?}, url={https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/12/151215-global-warming-heat-wave-stress-death-climate/}, journal={National Geographic}, publisher={National Geographic Society}, author={Katz, Cheryl and National Geographic}, year={2016}, month={Dec}}
@misc{kopp_buzan_huber_2015, title={The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity}, url={https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html}, journal={The New York Times}, publisher={The New York Times}, author={Kopp, Robert and Buzan, Jonathan and Huber, Matthew}, year={2015}, month={Jun}}
@misc{krajick_earth institute_columbia university_2017, title={From U.S. South to China, heat stress could exceed human endurance}, url={https://phys.org/news/2017-12-south-china-stress-human.html}, journal={Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and Technology}, publisher={Phys.org}, author={Krajick, Kevin and Earth Institute and Columbia University}, year={2017}, month={Dec}}
@article{lesk_rowhani_ramankutty_2015, title={Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production}, volume={529}, url={https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16467}, DOI={10.1038/nature16467}, number={7584}, journal={Nature}, author={Lesk, Corey and Rowhani, Pedram and Ramankutty, Navin}, year={2015}, month={Nov}, pages={84–87}}
@article{marias_meinzer_still_2017, title={Impacts of leaf age and heat stress duration on photosynthetic gas exchange and foliar nonstructural carbohydrates inCoffea arabica}, volume={7}, url={https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5306013/}, DOI={10.1002/ece3.2681}, number={4}, journal={Ecology and Evolution}, author={Marias, Danielle E. and Meinzer, Frederick C. and Still, Christopher}, year={2017}, month={Jan}, pages={1297–1310}}
@article{medina-ramon_schwartz_2007, title={Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities}, volume={64}, url={http://oem.bmj.com/content/64/12/827.short}, DOI={10.1136/oem.2007.033175}, number={12}, journal={Occupational and Environmental Medicine}, author={Medina-Ramon, M and Schwartz, J}, year={2007}, month={Jun}, pages={827–833}}
@article{mora_counsell_bielecki_louis_2017, title={Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You:}, volume={10}, url={http://circoutcomes.ahajournals.org/content/10/11/e004233/tab-article-info}, DOI={10.1161/circoutcomes.117.004233}, number={11}, journal={Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes}, author={Mora, Camilo and Counsell, Chelsie W.w. and Bielecki, Coral R. and Louis, Leo V}, year={2017}, month={Nov}}
@misc{muir_2012, title={Thermogeddon: When the Earth gets too hot for humans}, url={https://barringtonstewart.wordpress.com/thermogeddon-when-the-earth-gets-too-hot-for-humans/}, journal={The B Zone}, author={Muir, Hazel}, year={2012}, month={May}}
@misc{narayanan_scroll.in_2017, title={India is just half a degree away from a huge spike in heat-related deaths in summers}, url={https://qz.com/1005641/india-is-just-half-a-degree-away-from-a-huge-spike-in-heat-related-deaths-in-summers/}, journal={Quartz}, publisher={Quartz}, author={Narayanan, Nayantara and Scroll.in}, year={2017}, month={Jun}}
@article{norris_allen_evan_zelinka_o’dell_klein_2016, title={Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record}, volume={536}, url={https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18273}, DOI={10.1038/nature18273}, number={7614}, journal={Nature}, author={Norris, Joel R. and Allen, Robert J. and Evan, Amato T. and Zelinka, Mark D. and O’Dell, Christopher W. and Klein, Stephen A.}, year={2016}, month={Jul}, pages={72–75}}
@misc{oregon state university_2017, title={Even short-duration heat waves could lead to failure of coffee crops}, url={https://phys.org/news/2017-03-short-duration-failure-coffee-crops.html}, journal={Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and Technology}, publisher={Phys.org}, author={Oregon State University}, year={2017}, month={Mar}}
@article{pal_eltahir_2015, title={Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability}, volume={6}, url={http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/paleltahir2015extremespersiangulf.pdf}, DOI={10.1038/nclimate2833}, number={2}, journal={Nature Climate Change}, author={Pal, Jeremy S. and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.}, year={2015}, month={Oct}, pages={197–200}}
@misc{reuters staff_2016, title={Pakistan digs mass graves as heat wave looms}, url={https://www.reuters.com/video/2016/05/20/pakistan-digs-mass-graves-as-heat-wave-l?videoId=368574166}, journal={Reuters}, publisher={Thomson Reuters}, author={Reuters Staff}, year={2016}, month={May}}
@misc{romo_2018, title={Australia's Heat Wave Fries Bats' Brains, Hundreds Found Dead}, url={https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/01/10/576908629/australias-heat-wave-fries-bats-brains-hundreds-found-dead}, journal={NPR}, publisher={NPR}, author={Romo, Vanessa}, year={2018}, month={Jan}}
@article{russo_sillmann_sterl_2017, title={Humid heat waves at different warming levels}, volume={7}, url={https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-07536-7}, DOI={10.1038/s41598-017-07536-7}, number={1}, journal={Scientific Reports}, author={Russo, Simone and Sillmann, Jana and Sterl, Andreas}, year={2017}, month={Jul}}
@article{sherwood_huber_2010, title={An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress}, volume={107}, url={http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.0913352107}, number={21}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, author={Sherwood, S. C. and Huber, M.}, year={2010}, month={May}, pages={9552–9555}}
@misc{sherwood_2012, title={What is Wet Bulb temperature?}, url={http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~stevensherwood/wetbulb.html}, journal={Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) - University of New South Wales - Australia}, author={Sherwood, Steve}, year={2012}, month={Mar}}
@misc{staff reporter_2017, title={Birds fall from sky in Kuwait as temperatures soar to 50C across Middle East}, url={https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/birds-fall-sky-kuwait-temperatures-soar-50c-across-middle-east-1634645}, journal={International Business Times UK}, publisher={Blizzard Entertainment}, author={Staff Reporter}, year={2017}, month={Aug}}
@misc{thompson_2015, title={Heat, Humidity Combine to Threaten Millions in Future}, url={http://www.climatecentral.org/news/heat-humidity-threaten-millions-in-future-19815}, journal={Climate Central}, author={Thompson, Andrea}, year={2015}, month={Dec}}
@misc{ward_2017, title={Scientists Want to Genetically Engineer Heat-Resistant Cows to Survive Climate Change}, url={https://futurism.com/scientists-want-to-genetically-engineer-heat-resistant-cows-to-survive-climate-change/}, journal={Futurism}, publisher={Futurism}, author={Ward, Tom}, year={2017}, month={Jun}}
@misc{wasif_2017, title={Intense heat 'to make human survival difficult in Pakistan' by 2100}, url={https://tribune.com.pk/story/1474090/intense-heat-make-human-survival-difficult-pakistan/}, journal={The Express Tribune}, publisher={The Express Tribune}, author={Wasif, Sehrish}, year={2017}, month={Aug}}
@article{wiebe_lotze-campen_sands_tabeau_mensbrugghe_biewald_bodirsky_islam_kavallari_mason-d’croz_et al_2015, title={Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios}, volume={10}, url={http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010}, number={8}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, author={Wiebe, Keith and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Sands, Ronald and Tabeau, Andrzej and Mensbrugghe, Dominique Van Der and Biewald, Anne and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Islam, Shahnila and Kavallari, Aikaterini and Mason-D’Croz, Daniel and et al.}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={085010}}
@misc{worland_2016, title={Drought and Extreme Heat Are Killing the World's Crops}, url={http://time.com/4170029/crop-production-extreme-heat-climate-change/}, journal={Time}, publisher={Time}, author={Worland, Justin}, year={2016}, month={Jan}}
@misc{worland_2017, title={Extreme Heat Waves Will Change How We Live. We're Not Ready}, url={http://time.com/4830147/extreme-heat-climate-change/}, journal={Time}, publisher={Time}, author={Worland, Justin}, year={2017}, month={Jun}}
@article{zanobetti_oneill_gronlund_schwartz_2012, title={Summer temperature variability and long-term survival among elderly people with chronic disease}, volume={109}, url={http://www.pnas.org/content/109/17/6608}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1113070109}, number={17}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, author={Zanobetti, A. and Oneill, M. S. and Gronlund, C. J. and Schwartz, J. D.}, year={2012}, month={Apr}, pages={6608–6613}}