Heat Death Transcript

Chapters

08:58 How will Modern Infrastructure Adapt to Heat?
10:18 Transportation
17:45 Energy
22:56 Renewable Energy
25:24 Animals and Crops
32:50 Human Health
44:20 Pakistan and India
46:24 Wet-Bulb
52:41 Future Temperatures
1:01:23 Variable Benchmarks
1:02:53 What Can We Do?

(Please pardon the poor quality machine translation until we can human edit and clean it up)

David Torcivia: [0:00] I'm David torcivia. 

Daniel Forkner: [0:02] I'm Daniel forkner. 

David Torcivia:  [0:04] And this is ashes ashes show about systemic issues cracks in civilization collapse of the environment and if we're unlucky the end of the world. 

Daniel Forkner:  [0:14] But if we learn from all this maybe we can stop that the world might be broken but it doesn't have to be. 

David Torcivia:  [0:20] This week on ashes ashes were turning up the temperature as we look at the effects and impacts at the increasing heat of climate change is going to have on our world on each of us individually the infrastructure that ties us together our agriculture, and even in the end our individual health. 

Daniel Forkner:  [0:37] And this episode is really timely for me personally David because here in the southeast United States summer just arrived and it is hot it is humid and it's only going to get worse. 

David Torcivia:  [0:48] It's a frigid 53 degrees 12 degrees Celsius here up in New York so I don't entirely sympathize with you. 

Daniel Forkner:  [0:56] I'm a little jealous. 

David Torcivia:  [0:58] But with that in mind we'll It's Just Jump Right In. 

Daniel Forkner:  [1:01] In 2010 Russia experienced one of the most severe heat waves ever over 10,000 people died forest fires were sparked and crops were destroyed. And why we've had more deadly heat waves researchers at the time I thought it may have been among the worst heat waves and at least 500 years. 

[1:22] But because of a rapidly changing climate this event will likely seem unremarkable in the face of what's to come. With just a 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius global warming heat waves of much greater magnitude will be likely and more frequent. The last year Europe had a heat wave that was so hot they named it Lucifer well with a 1.5 to 2 degrees warming heat waves will occur every single year that exceed Lucifer's temperature. And they will occur in Asia Australia the United States China India Latin America North Africa and the Middle East. 

David Torcivia:  [2:01] So pretty much the whole world. 

Daniel Forkner:  [2:04] Pretty much David and when global warming reaches a 4 degree increase heat waves will occur every other year above 55 degrees Celsius. Not for comparison that 2010 Russian Heat Wave which by the way it wasn't just isolated to Russia but was experienced by much of the northern hemisphere. 

[2:24] Well that heat wave recorded a 53.5 degrees Celsius record or 128 degrees Fahrenheit. 

David Torcivia:  [2:31] In fact based on current trends in just 80 years part of Asia and the Middle East will be completely inhospitable. And while that might sound insane and to be fair climate predictions are still in exact art as well explore later on in this episode these problems are only going to get much much worse. 

Daniel Forkner:  [2:48] Rising heat will make humid regions more humid and dry areas will expand and this incoming heat will have an accelerating impact on among many things the global Water Crisis that's going on right now. Currently 40% of the world's population experiences water scarcity and the scarcity alone may displace up to 700 million people from their homes over the next 12 years. This heat plays a big role in that. 

David Torcivia:  [3:15] 12 years I want to interrupt you just for second Daniel and emphasize how short of a time that is a lot of the times when we have a conversation that says woman coming decades by the end of the century but this is 12 years that's the very near future. 

Daniel Forkner:  [3:29] Yeah and as we'll see the effects of this heat are already being widely felt around the globe today and as the global temperature turns up. Clouds will get pushed into higher latitudes towards the poles and the dry edges of the tropics will expand poleward as well meaning that some of the most versatile and populist places on Earth won't get enough rainfall to regenerate groundwater, and agricultural production will suffer tremendously. 

David Torcivia:  [3:56] Send all bad though I'm in the Arctic needs those clouds already. 

Daniel Forkner:  [3:59] I suppose the clouds will add to the Albedo in the Arctic and maybe yeah. 

David Torcivia:  [4:03] Is it they call me David mr. positive torcivia. 

Daniel Forkner:  [4:06] I don't think anybody calls you. 

David Torcivia:  [4:07] Let's do this science. 

Daniel Forkner:  [4:10] Did you ever heard of convection before. 

David Torcivia:  [4:12] Just like my toaster oven. 

Daniel Forkner:  [4:13] Maybe what when you talked about in terms of the global climate there's a very simple process that happens where the heat from the Sun warms up the surface temperature and that causes water to evaporate. That evaporation gets into the air the air is now warm and because. This warm air that saturated with water is less dense than cold or air it starts to rise up into the atmosphere and as it does, this air starts to cool and it can no longer hold as much water so it releases it as rain and now that colder water that is now dry drifts a little bit towards the poles at falls to the surface, and now it provides that undercurrent which pushes hot air back up creating the cycle of convection. And a lot of this convection start in the tropics and this is described by a process called Hadley cell and this process is expanding. As the globe gets warmer, and more energy is added to this very hot region of the earth these Tropics there's a lot more water that's getting evaporated a lot more water that entering into this atmosphere in these systems. And what that means for the tropics is a lot more rainfall heavy rain more variability in the rain fall. But it also means that as that are now drops as water you have a lot more cold dryer are moving towards higher latitudes in the North High latitude in the. 

David Torcivia:  [5:49] Should I boil it all down into something short and simple what it basically means is that tropical areas are going to become wetter and hotter. And humidity which will explore later is going to be a big problem the additional water coming out it could overflow raining too much and hurting crops. But the areas on the purples of these tropical zones these subtropic Drive zones with Daniel mention will they going to get dryer I can be more desert-like and they're going to get bigger expanding. Towards the pole and towards the tropics itself and this is where most of the growth in these areas are happening as his Hadley cell expansion takes place these areas are where gets bigger, rain increases in the tropics but most of the growth and the Damage Done to the environment is in the subtopic dry zones which expand create more deserts is the same process that transformed the last rainforest of Africa. Into the dry Savannah land that we know today. Now imagine that playing out on a global scale and that's just one of the many problems that we need facing over the next few decades from this Rising Heat or the dangers of heat go beyond just crop failure and water scarcity. It's estimated that 30% of the world's population now lives in areas that experience heat and humidity conditions known to cause death. 

[7:02] What we're looking at for the future and the near future is the introduction of regularly occurring heat and humidity events that surpassed the most extreme heat waves experience in modern human history. 

Daniel Forkner:  [7:15] But David I think there's a common response to this which is that we humans. Will find a way to adapt to whatever changes occur in the world and it is true that from an evolutionary standpoint the success of the human species has come, in large part from our ability to adapt and work together as social groups to overcome environmental challenges. But there are big differences in the way humans are organized today relative to the majority of human history. Historically humans have adapted themselves according to the local environment. And in smaller but more tightly knit groups but modern civilization attempts to transcend this need for local adoption. And break down these tightly-knit communities into their constituent parts to serve the specialized needs of civilization. So we have an effect sacrifice our two most powerful traits adaptability and the formation of tight communities for the benefit of creating a global civilization. We as humans no longer adapt to the environment we adapt to the needs of the global economy. And as long as we're here in the philosophical round I suppose that concept is neither bad nor good it's just a different way of organizing ourselves. But in Practical terms what it means is that our survival now hinges not on the traits that made a successful in the first place. Ark survival hinges on the strength of that global economy which we not depend on so in that context in addition to asking how we as humans might adapt to this Rising Heat. 

[8:50] It may be an important question to ask how will This Global civilization adapt how will the global economy attack.  [8:58] And now our modern world was built in just the past.  [9:11] Conditions so David given the fact that Keith will be rising around the world in some of these desert areas will be expanding how might this affect This Global infrastructure. 

David Torcivia:  [9:21] Well it turns out when you start looking at things for an infrastructure perspective that, adaptation is hard it's expensive and it involves a lot of rebuilding everything we have because like you mentioned Daniel it just wasn't designed to exist in a world where the temperature regularly climbs into the inhospitable. 

Infrastructure [9:39] We built our civilization during a very predictable consistent time in whether we were lucky. It's not too hot it's not too cold at least most of the time and most places we can predict things it does not much variability. With the additional energy coming into the system from climate change all this extra heat trap. In the global weather environment well that has effects on this variability we can no longer trust that things are going to operate within a certain margin with a Nets temperature was it at the rainfall. Going forward our infrastructure isn't designed to cope with this variability with these extremes so let's explore with that might mean in some areas and I getting some of these problems are happening right now. 

Daniel Forkner:  [10:19] We find a lot of systems in our transportation infrastructure the start to struggle under certain conditions of heat and humidity. In June of last year for example temperatures in Phoenix Arizona where so hot that close to 50 flights were cancelled. Planes that were built to withstand a maximum temperature of 118 degrees Fahrenheit could not take off in what was a hundred and 20 degree weather. 

David Torcivia:  [10:46] Anthony Fair Daniel it's not that the planes can't withstand 120 degrees heat like they selling turn into this molten pile of aluminum on the runway but just a quirk in the way that flight happens. 

Transportation [10:56] As air heats up it becomes lower pressure by is able to hold less weight at these molecules spread out from each other for all the extra energy they're holding and that means a plane just can't get enough lift. The smaller body planes not the Super jumbo Jets like a 787 or triple seven instead the smaller planes their wings are too small to be able to fly these high temperatures and they just literally can't take off. In order to get around this we would have to design new planes that have higher thrust large wings or build runways that are just longer so that the additional time in order to get enough speed to attain lift is available on the runway. And all these pictures are expensive designing planes cost billions of dollars takes years or decades even and runways often time to run into geographical limits that they just can't be built any longer. Easy problem to fix. 

Daniel Forkner:  [11:44] And in a lot of cases the runways themselves face problems when temperatures get too hot. In 2012 one of the runways at the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport which serves Washington DC. Melted in weather that was just over a hundred degrees Fahrenheit the plane itself sunk down a little bit into the tarmac and couldn't take off. And obviously airports are places where there's a high demand for investment they serve a lot of people so. I suppose you can justify the cost of upgrading the tarmac at cell so they can withstand higher heat but what do you think you find similar infrastructure David all over outside of airport. 

David Torcivia:  [12:25] Daniel I think that's probably roads it turns out building roads that don't melt in high temperatures is with a guest expensive. So most roads are designed to withstand up to 50 degrees Celsius above that temperature they start melting and to be fair that's pretty hot. 

[12:43] Atmospheric temperature is not the same as the temperature you find on a road so the way that we measure temperature and this is important for this episode is as follows. You place a thermometer to meters off the ground in the shade, so that means there's no sun getting it directly to your above the area where temperature is reading direct off the ground in this is called to meter atmospheric temperature in this is when somebody says the temperature this is muscle time what they're talking about. There but two different ways to measure temperature will talk about later things like wet-bulb but this is a go to that the weather report is giving you. Now course we know standing in the shade is going to be a lot cooler than standing in the Sun and where do most Road spend their lives. Sitting in the sun and of course their dark black directly on the ground absorbing all that extra he threatens Road temperature can be anywhere 15-20 or as high as 30 degrees above and beyond temperature. Answer that means temperatures of 30-35 degrees Celsius converted easily surpass that in 50 degree melting point of the road and even a mild Heat Wave can cause the road to quite literally melt. 

Daniel Forkner:  [13:45] But it is possible to design roads that can withstand this heat there was a heat wave in 1995 in it inspired a new type of asphalt that could withstand. Up to 80 degrees Celsius before it started to melt. But as you would expect it's a lot more expensive and it's not so practical to replace all your roads in the UK for example only about 5% of all roads they have are made of this expensive ass. 

[14:11] And this is something that actually happens it's not theoretical in January of this year just a few months ago temperature set a 79 year record in Sydney Australia at 117 degrees Fahrenheit. And because of this intense heat about 6 miles of Highway melted and where impossible. 

David Torcivia:  [14:31] It's 47 degrees Celsius for those keeping track at home. 

Daniel Forkner:  [14:35] Yeah there's going to be a lot of temperatures in this episode David Celsius we've got Fahrenheit fair with us will try to translate some of them but can't get them all. 

David Torcivia:  [14:44] Sorry everyone it's hard to jump back and forth I'm actually I use celsius exclusively I switched in large part because of his climate discussions it's a lot easier to to internalize what the temperature is what does what you're used to so. Even more confusing for me now switching back and forth between all this stuff. 

Daniel Forkner:  [15:01] And as long as we're talking about Transportation this isn't just roads but also the Rail lines the trains go on. Cut the steel lines that make up train tracks if they get too hot they actually buckle and bend and just like these roads that we talked about they can be 20 to 30 degrees Celsius hotter than the ambient air. 

David Torcivia:  [15:20] Do you can actually see videos of this online and it's really amazing because the train is coming in and is realign itself it looks perfectly straight like there's no problems but as soon as the weight and the pressure of the trains are approaching. Flip the switch basically in the crystal structure of these rails and they just. And also their wavy and out of whack of the train conductor has to slam on their brakes her to stop and it's increasing Hazard as these temperatures continue to. 

Daniel Forkner:  [15:44] Train operators try to monitor the temperatures of the Rails if they detect that they're getting too hot they have to decrease train speeds and when they actually do buckle you do have to wait for them to cool down before you can even start repairing them. So this may be an additional stress on an already crumbling infrastructure component. 

[16:04] So those are the surfaces that are Automobiles and R trains even are planes travel on. 

David Torcivia:  [16:10] Planes Trains and Automobiles. 

Daniel Forkner:  [16:12] What about the actual Vehicles themselves. 

David Torcivia:  [16:15] It's no shock to anybody but higher temperatures decrease the efficiency, just about everything when it comes to either burning fossil fuels or for those of us who are feeling green and their electric cars will your battery discharge your range is going to be to matically cut down a sea temperatures continue to climb. In fact most Electronics Machinery they have upper temperatures there supposed to be run at. 

Daniel Forkner:  [16:37] The iPhone for example can only operate between about 32 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit which is between 0 and 35 degrees Celsius. 

David Torcivia:  [16:46] You probably have this happen to you if you never left your phone in your car, over the summer when it gets hot and toasty in there like a big oven or go to turn on your phone you press the button and you can see that it's shut down because of high temperature and you have to wait for it to cool down or keep using it will in the future we might find that are electric cars are doing the same thing, a particularly hot day in a place like Phoenix in your black car you go to flip the switch in up the car won't turn on. And if it does expect your range to be cut down dramatically couple that in with additional air conditioning needed in order to. Basically surviving these high temperatures and you're going to find these electric vehicles are far less efficient they would be under more optimal circumstances but that's not to say internal combustion isn't also damaged by these high heat. Temperatures mean lower business he's just like low temperatures do. And when you're operating outside the optimal bounds of temperature efficiency is cut down dramatically your burning a lot more fuel and you're getting us into an even worse situation when it comes to this climate change in the first place. 

Daniel Forkner:  [17:45] What day did you mention the AC that's in our cars but I think this would be a good place to transition to talking about the air conditioning in our buildings were most of us depend on it for most of the day because. As we'll discuss as we'll see in this episode there are places in this world where this heat will become so bad that, the only way to assure that you can keep surviving is through constant air conditioning. 

[18:10] So if we're going to be experiencing a lower efficiency for these systems that we're going to rely on is that a threat to our ability to deal with this Rising Heat.  Energy [18:21] Cuz I don't know about you David but when I turn the AC on usually it's because I'm hot and air conditioning takes a ton of energy. It does we've discussed in our infrastructure episode our power grid at least in the United States is already at Max Capacity, in summer time in hot conditions where there's a peak demand for electricity mostly because of the demand for air conditioning so it raises a question in my mind are we capable of providing the power that we need, or the system. 

David Torcivia:  [18:51] Power is one of the major considerations when it comes to these Heat Wave and there's a number of factors that goes into complicating this, so again as we've mentioned as temperatures increase efficiencies decrease almost across the board and what are the major areas that this happens is actually in power generation, but it also happens in power transmission it happens in the efficiency of the air conditioning units themselves and all this adds up. In addition while you were using the efficiency of power mean in the power that you generated while there's less of it more of its being lost during transmission you're using more of it to do the same amount of cooling will at the same time your medical increasing how much power you need. Days with lots of air conditioning on can increase power demands by too much is 21% above normal Peak levels, 50 huge demand on the grid and it's only with our current fossil fuel and nuclear basically that we can respond to these sudden spikes in demand additionally. The transmission of this energy on these hottest days is dramatically decreased. Tell again as we talked about in the past is not just about generating energy it's about transporting it to where it needs to go and it is done through the long copper wires these high tension lines that are built all over the country and all over the world. And these lines well when they get hot they become far less efficient a decrease of 1% for every three degrees Celsius raised and of course Trooper Transformers Transformers have maximum operating yours as well. In the past we've been responsible for number of brownouts and fires because when the temperatures are overloaded and the electricity running through them is not cut the Transformer itself burst into flames with causes cascading failures along the entire grid. 

[20:24] So here we have a problem of generation not enough I'm transmission it's less efficient and then the final distribution from these Transformers being overloaded by the Heat and the needs of the system and you have, what amounts do a perfect storm. And this is going to be huge problem as we go for it and need to shift our grid from one that is based on fossil fuels to one that is more built around Renewables and that ultimate goal of 100% renewable electricity. And there's number reasons why so let's explore this to its first look at our current power generation system in Worthy's in efficiencies occur during heat wave events. For everyone degrees Celsius above normal operating temperatures. We see a 2% reduction in power produced by gas fuel and nuclear plants and this is because of reductions in cooling capability and thermal transfer and most importantly in new clear by the temperature of water. So almost all nuclear plants are built on a large body of water whether it's a lake weather it's a river or. 

Daniel Forkner:  [21:20] Or whether it's on the coast where they're going to be experiencing Rising Seas. 

David Torcivia:  [21:24] Exactly Daniel and so they can take this cold water from whatever body water is pumped through the plant turn the steam music to cool their systems, generate electricity from it and then pump it back into the body of water is much hotter water. And when there's a large temperature differential between this water and the temperature that they're generating at the plant so that is to say the colder the water that goes in you get more power out of the plant. And there are limits to this water when it's a certain temperature when it's gets too hot to plant reduces if it's a lot but there is a point where suddenly the plant is not getting enough. 

[21:56] Either have to reduce power in order to not overload heat transfer system, or the plant itself can undergo catastrophic keep accumulation and have to be entirely shut down until water temperatures decrease and the safety margins of these vary from plant to plant design it with the body of water is and what the expected temperature in these Waters were going through time. As we see these Heatwave offense dramatically raising the temperatures of these bodies of water we might see more interruptions in these cooling systems for nuclear plants for fuel plants for any plant that depends, on a body of water as its main cooling source and this problem is coming soon to us some Studies have found that somebody thermoelectric plants in the Mediterranean region. Face 100% loss of power generation because of these high water temperatures by 2030 and in the United States 27% of such facilities will be heavily impacted at the same time. That's expensive to fix it means we're losing a large portion or power generation capability and more importantly when it comes to dealing with these heat waste these are the plants that can easily scale up. And it brings it to the problem with Renewables here as we talked about in our Power episode you have to balance the generation capabilities of the grid with the demands of the grid. We have too much generation and not enough demand will the grid itself can crash you have to take these things off line shutting down so that they're not going and that's losing money when I build whatever power generator and if it's not running at full capacity I'm losing money on it. So I'm less likely to invest in it to build things that are this extra Surplus power.  [23:28] Alchemy to realize this realize they need this extra generation capability anyway so we'll pay natural gas generators another fuel-based generators like nuclear plants to wrap up and wrap down depending on the current needs of the grid.  Renewable Energy [23:40] What is solely renewable base grid doesn't have that capability you can't turn up solar power. You can't increase wind speed you're bound by the limits of that device so that means a grid based solely on these renewable products need to have dramatically more capacity than a traditional fossil fuel in nuclear based grid. Exacerbating this problem even more when these heat waves need the most power is generally in the mid afternoons the hottest part of the day and that is also the least efficient time for wind generation which is been disorderly one of the major over producers of this Renewable Power.  [24:14] Even worse than that during these extra hot days when tend to be less intense but even when you are generating power it's not as much as you would normally so you have this sort of inverse correlation that wind power is generating power when you least eat it and sitting idle when you most. And to get around that means you have to build dramatic huge amounts of additional power generation into the system which is expensive time-consuming and going to be difficult to find people willing to invest in this extra Surplus generation when they're not guaranteed any sort of repayment for. This is a problem that the greatest has had answers to right now they're working on grid storage systems which would help mitigate some of this but when you have a particularly bad. It overwhelms leaving the storage systems well then the brown eyes are going to happen power is going to go out and as we're explore later on in this episode. That my bad deadly consequences. 

Daniel Forkner:  [25:03] But David that sounds like a extremely complicated problem. You're talking about a man-made system so maybe there's some complex solution of this we just haven't realized yet. Despite the physical limits that you talked about, in terms of efficiency using heat transfer and things that frankly I don't really understand that well but there are natural systems that we do depend on that are showing signs of stress related to Rising Heat. In August of 2017 the same month that Europe was experiencing that terrible Heatwave Lucifer. The temperature in humidity in Kuwait got so high that bird started dropping from the sky. And in 2014 and estimated 100000 bats fell out of the sky and died from heat waves in Australia. And that he weighed the pass through Sydney of this year will this affected bats again hundreds of baby bats were found dead with thousands more expected to die from this heat wave that essentially boiled their brains. 

Animals And Crops [26:07] What other animals were effective to birds were dehydrated and many four-legged animals burn their paws. But before we talk about how animals are affected by the rising heat David what about the crops that we depend on the very food that we eat.  [26:23] In 2016 the very first study of its kind looked at the relationship between Global crop production and extreme weather from 1964 to 2007. And it found it drought in extreme heat reduced production of crops like rice wheat and corn the cereal crops by 10%, the effects of drought Racine most significantly after 1984 as it's been getting worse and it will continue to get worse. And it goes without saying that as we are on track to add a couple billion more people to the Earth by 2050 we will need to increase agricultural yield significantly just to maintain current consumption levels. In sub-sahara Africa alone for example Crop Production will need to Triple to feed its population growth by 2050. 

David Torcivia:  [27:12] Yeah but where's the research on at what temperature corn starts popping into popcorn directly the fields and how much microwave power that would say. 

Daniel Forkner:  [27:21] The research for that David is still pending but we are. 

[27:31] Drop David that has me worried more than just corn and that's the coffee plant.  [27:36] To the coffee Arabica plant accounts for about 60 to 65% of global coffee production, and it's grown in the tropics all over the world and some places it can be harvested year-round in other places the Harvest are done by season. Are these plants take a while to mature it takes between 3 to 4 years before they start yielding fruit and it can be up to 7 years for full maturation. A recent study found that these plants are extremely sensitive to heat waves. When Arabica plants were exposed to short-term simulated heat waves of 49° C for either 45 or 90 minutes they were severely damaged they took a while to recover their water efficiency decline. 

David Torcivia:  [28:21] Get to the point Daniel is my coffee safe or not come on we got to talk about what's important here. 

Daniel Forkner:  [28:26] Okay you're asking the right questions David will every single plant regardless of age that experienced the short bursts of heat lost the ability to flower reproduce and most importantly to make fruit. That means no more coffee. And although 49 degrees Celsius may sound high heat waves of that magnitude and higher are in coming and will be occurring at much greater frequency than ever before especially in these regions where this plant is grown. 

David Torcivia:  [28:53] Further there was no lower bound on the study scientists just look at 49 degrees Celsius and they have no idea what it could be 4745 in which case that high upper body temperature is even lower. 

Daniel Forkner:  [29:07] Will you not David whenever I read one of these studies. It always reminds me of how little we really know about this world I mean you take coffee for example it's been cultivated for at least. 1100 years and in our modern time we are quote discovering for the first time some pretty basic facts about the plant in terms of its ability to adapt to different environments. That makes me wonder how much of the natural world we lack a basic understanding of simply because there's no perceived economic significance, and as long as we can reap some economic value out of something we go forward exploding that thing. I'm ahead and it's only when the economic returns of that activity, become threatened do we decide to look back study and try to understand it. We only do that in search of some technological Band-Aid we might be able to invent to keep us moving Full Speed Ahead. 

David Torcivia:  [30:03] And it's not just coffee facing these problems but chocolate even marijuana is their crops that are going to be impacted by the heat waves that dramatically cut yields or in the case is like coffee might completely eliminate them. In fact when we found one study looking at the high temperature affects and we're trying to find which crops would actually benefit from this, and in an ironic Twist from whoever is creating our hellworld the only group that actually benefits from these increased temperatures and CO2 levels combined. Is well sugarcane. 

Daniel Forkner:  [30:36] Which as we discussed in our sugar episode David is. 

David Torcivia:  [30:40] No bueno. 

Daniel Forkner:  [30:40] Is not good. 

David Torcivia:  [30:42] Hubris of a scientific knowledge is not limited to Simply researching the agricultural plants but also with life and livestock itself. 

Daniel Forkner:  [30:52] Heat can reduce the ability for cattle and other livestock to produce protein you can have other health impacts on animals as well and this Rising heat will have a direct impact on meat production. So perhaps not surprising at this point the answer that some scientists are looking for. Is in the form of a $700,000 grant to study the genetics of a particularly heat-resistant cow. They want to identify the genes that are responsible for this heat resistance and potentially added other species to withstand this heat. 

David Torcivia:  [31:23] I love this one because it's such a great example of the way that we approach problem-solving these days, oh no we got a terrible problem you know that is anthropogenic climate warming burn too much fossil fuel to make in the world hot, well you know how do we fix it we talked about we have to suck it out with technology doesn't exist you know everyone ignoring the simple answer stop burning fossil fuels or here to, researchers saying well we're going to run out of this livestock when I can have cattle Sunset of saying well maybe we should switch to eating less cattle something that would again benefit this climate change the traumatic warming that we're seeing and said. No let's instead take the jeans from some cattle crispr them into other cattle with who-knows-what effects and hope that that ends up being a fix that can allow it to continue eating. As unsustainable that they be willing to you are hot and increasingly hot teacher. 

Daniel Forkner:  [32:15] Well this is exactly what I mean by I system that only looks back when it's a text A disruption to business as usual. It doesn't bother to address some of the systemic causes of this. And like I mentioned how historically humans adapt to the local environment this is a perfect example of how we are now trying to adopt. The local environment to this, very top-down global economy we have the need to produce meat we had the desire to eat me therefore we must make our cows adapt to whatever problems were causing to keep that system going. 

David Torcivia:  [32:51] Course it's not just livestock that will be suffering under these increased heat but ourselves that is high temperatures of dramatic effects on our bodies in all sorts of different interesting and unexpected ways. 

Daniel Forkner:  [33:04] Heat stroke is a serious illness in a result when body temperatures go above 40 degrees C or about 104 degrees Fahrenheit, and many factors can contribute to it the humidity obviously the air temperature how much physical exertion a person is undergoing but also the drugs are on like alcohol or something like coffee other diuretics, and some people as you would expect are more susceptible to heat stroke than others the elderly in the ill are at the greatest risk. 

Human Health [33:33] And the way this heat kills is not totally and fully understood because there are so many ways that he can trigger death in a person, is very complex and there are at least five physiological phenomenon that can occur in the body which can impact any combination of seven vital organs. And so these physiological phenomenon speaking things like inflammation. Inadequate blood supply and of course the vital organs that can be impacted being our brain or heart or liver. So what actually happens when the body will first the body attempts to transfer heat away from the vital organs and it does that by redirecting warmblood to the skin, which condensed wet and take that hot water way through the operation and also the heart can get stressed leading to a risk for cardiac arrest is overheating also use a combined with other complications like dehydration and potassium deficiency. And the redirection of this blood makes organs vulnerable to toxins bacteria from the gut can leak out and enter the blood supply.  [34:35] And clots can form in the blood which increase the risk of hypoxia that's just to name a few. 

David Torcivia:  [34:40] And of course the most at risk are in general the elderly children and the ill, these individuals have compromised ability to regulate some of these physiological mechanisms but also anyone that is forced to do physical labor which is predominantly or people, are much higher risk for this. Historically we thought these heatstroke wrist were limited to the time of heat stroke and shortly after while the body recovers but the 1995 Chicago Heat Wave researchers found something interesting. 

[35:09] There weren't many people admitted to hospital for heat stroke at the time and back 739 people died from this heat wave which actually the temperature was even tremendously hot with the hottest day reaching 41 degrees Celsius illustrating just how, risky these even moderate heat waves can be.  [35:27] Researchers took this chance to examine people who were admitted to hospitals for heat stroke in folder health or years afterwards and they found something extraordinary. Heat stroke originally was thought to only be a risk within a couple of hours of when it first happened once you're out of the initial problem well then you were going to be fine.  [35:46] In the study they found that other patients they followed when nearly half of these patients with for admitted for heat stroke died within one year. 21% before releasing the hospital so these are the people that died from the initial heat stroke symptoms. Additional 28% of them died after release sometime during the year indicating that maybe they teach doperoms have more profound effects. And researchers were currently aware of and this research is currently still ongoing and Minnie the survivors suffered from permanent loss of independent function 1/3 had severe functional impairment at discharged and none of these patient improved over the course of the year. I'm going to chop researchers. 

Daniel Forkner:  [36:24] It is interesting that the dangers of heat. Are not always just the risk of dying from heat stress but it can affect our health in many ways including our Mental Health. And this is been well-documented a hospital in Vietnam for example found at higher ambient temperatures were related to higher Hospital admissions for depression and other mental disorders. And a study that looked at over 53,000 people in Australia. Discover that increases in both temperature and humidity associate significantly with an increase in people experiencing high and very high the stress which is a combination of depression and anxiety, other Studies have shown similar relationships between. 

David Torcivia:  [37:12] And something I think that we can all relate to other Studies have found that there is a dramatic increase. And irritability and aggression on higher-temperature days so I love this cuz it's it I think it's really funny here that we have a world is getting hotter so we have always increase mental problems depression aggression and xiety. We can buy that also with the increased carbon dioxide load that we discussed in very great that's an episode 7 last-gasp where we are also seeing increases in inside a mental problems lower cognitive abilities and we are making ourselves a species. Dumber more aggressive. More depressed and just generally suffering from more mental woes than ever before while trying to deal with these problems in a stressed world that just going to get even more difficult to navigate as time goes on. I'm not a betting man but if I was it looks like the odds are increasingly stacked against us. 

Daniel Forkner:  [38:04] And David when we were at discussing our infrastructure our electrical grid and how it will have to respond to this ride and he is pretty obvious that there's going to be some tremendous economic consequences. Just from those factors alone but the effect that this Rising heat has on humans on this Mental Health on this physical health, well that's going to have an extremely large effect on our economy because so much of our economy depends on human labor. 

[38:32] Because really in our technologically-advanced world how much is really automated at this point. We have computers that Autumn and a lot of paperwork but when it comes to our basic needs things like agriculture are shelter in the closing that we we're up as we discussed a couple weeks ago we still rely fundamentally on human labor. And those of us who live in more temperate or tolerable environments we may feel that we are shielded from this Rising Heat. But when it becomes more difficult to labor in the agricultural fields that we've outsourced to harsh environments. 

David Torcivia:  [39:05] That is one third of the world's population to be clear. 

Daniel Forkner:  [39:08] Norma's amount of the population involved in this industry what there's going to be at the wrecked economic impact belt all over in places where that food eventually wines up on grocery shelves. I mean you had heat spikes in 2017 that prompted some cities to declare mandatory holidays so that workers would be prevented from coming to work and risking their health so let's consider. Jeep makes the job dangerous so you have to Halt the work will can our global economy survive abrupt. Frequent variable and unpredictable pauses in economic activity from things like these forced mandatory holidays. 

David Torcivia:  [39:50] And it's not just us that are saying that in the regions of the world that we most heavily impacted by heat economic productivity is expected to decline by 18% by 2050 and it's not hard to imagine why. 

Daniel Forkner:  [40:05] 441 you've got 1.4 billion people that live in India and Pakistan alone. Which will get to in terms of what they're experiencing right now but this is a place where a significant amount of our global population lives. A majority of these people are poor they work in manual labor jobs there often exposed to additional heat because of the work they do in the conditions that they live in. And these people are going to be living in some of the hottest conditions in the world and when you do manual labor under these extreme conditions will it's hard to be productive. 

David Torcivia:  [40:36] And we're already seeing impacts of this high heat on people's health and productivity at large scales. In some countries that were lying a lot of outdoor labor in high heat areas so places like Latin America and India, chronic kidney disease is rapidly expanding among populations primarily affecting young and middle-aged or. What are the mini Health crisis going on around the world and although the cause has not. Exactly determined yet it's prevalent among people working for long periods in heat to just the heat stress is a contributing factor. Some people have suggested that as many as a quarter of some of these populations are affected by is chronic kidney disease. 

Daniel Forkner:  [41:16] And in terms of General mortality David heat has become the largest cause of weather related deaths all over the world, even in the United States a place where we don't typically think of having high periods of heat stress, a 2007 study that looked at 50 US cities found that between 1989 and 2000, deaths related to extreme temperatures in the United States Rose about one and a half percent from extreme cold but 5.7% due to extreme heat, the biggest impacts were felt in densely populated cities especially those that lack air conditioning, and the conclusion is interesting it says quote these findings suggest that increases and heat-related mortality due to global warming are unlikely to be compensated for by decreases in cold related mortality, and a population acclimatization to heat is still in complete in quote so in other words we're not adapting to climate change. I guess we'll see when we get to a discussion about wet-bulb temperature. The prospects for future human adaption to climate change to these Rising temperatures is not looking very good. 

David Torcivia:  [42:26] Really interesting when I mention heat to people when I was researching this episode I don't think people realize it was such a killer, when we think about natural disasters at least here in the United States you think about hurricanes you think about tornadoes maybe ice storms flooding for sure and those are the big Killers right. 

[42:44] Is number 1 by a good bit. Flooding December to Archangel somewhere down even farther than that and the things that get all this press coverage that we concentrate on aren't in fact most dangerous problems which, considering some of the things we talked about on the show shouldn't be surprising at all but as temperatures increase and increase they have will this loss of life has increased dramatically so from 2000 to 2010. Mortality from heat waves has increased by over 20 300%. 

Daniel Forkner:  [43:10] You know the main reason it seems that we're not adapting well to this climate change at least in terms of our direct biological interaction with extreme temperatures is that adaptation works best under consistent and predictable environments. And the climate is becoming increasingly variable and unpredictable. 

[43:46] In about a hundred and thirty-five US cities over a 20-year period from 1985 to 2006 among elderly people with chronic disease they wanted to know how variability and temperature impacted short-term deaths. And they found that as the variability in the summer temperatures increased deaths increased among people with chronic disease. Specifically a 1 degree increase in the standard deviation for temperature in summertime could increase mortality by 5%, among these vulnerable populations. 

David Torcivia:  [44:20] But these debts are occurring right. 

[44:23] Agreement in Pakistan is one of the country's being most heavily impacted by climate change and this Rising heat is a big part of that, Pakistan he just had become serious enough that locals dig Mass Graves ahead of expected heat waves to better prepare for the surge of corpses that they know they will have to deal with, this is not some sort of apocalyptic Mad Max future this is occurring of once again right now. 

Daniel Forkner:  [44:46] India is one area where many factors are coming together to spell tragedy for huge swaths of people to simply won't be able to cope. The incoming heat for people that don't have the infrastructure to Shield themselves with is a big part of this tragedy the Tom Reuters Foundation interview that 54 year old woman a few months ago near East India's Coast, 

Pakistan And India [45:08] who described the difficulties of living in an area that is experiencing longer summers, and higher temperatures sometimes well over a hundred and fifteen degrees Fahrenheit to this woman she lives in the shack. And the only air conditioning available to her is the practice of laying sax down on her tin roof and spraying them with water every couple hours. She and her neighbors they sleep outside at night hoping for Breeze that usually never comes and because of the heat they can't sleep more than 3 to 4 hours before they have to get up and go to work. 

David Torcivia:  [45:41] This is exacerbated by India's enormous slum population in these people at some of the greatest risk from this Rising Heat. Meshack's Tropic heat there's no air conditioning there overcrowded and chronic illnesses that can make a person up to four times more likely to die from heat are common in these environments. Everywhere in the world India Piers to be on the Tipping Point of a much more serious threat. Study concluded that means summer temperature in India Rises by just 0.5 degrees C which we're well on track for the probability of heat-related mass mortality will more than double. In addition if the average number of Heatwave days in India goes up by just to the risk for Mass mortality also doubles. 

Daniel Forkner:  [46:25] We've been talking about temperatures that are hot and how bad it is when things get too hot but again I suppose someone could still try to argue the point. 

[46:35] Humans will simply a. We're very good at it we survive in the Arctic we survive in the desert will be fine and it is true that our bodies are good Regulators of heat. Do we maintain a core temperature of 37° C or 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit. And when we exert ourselves through physical activity or when are temperatures rise our body shed heat through the skin warm blood is diverted away from those vital organs to the skin where we makes sweat, our body heat is transferred to that sweat and then the sweat evaporates away carrying that transfer heat away from us.  Wet-Bulb [47:11] And that's why we can survive even in the extreme temperatures over a hundred degrees Fahrenheit or 40 degrees C and it's why I will be able to withstand even greater temperatures of 55 degrees C, which is 130 degrees Fahrenheit it's not pleasant the risk of heat stroke is very high but it's doable. 

David Torcivia:  [47:30] It's doable because the body Can't Sweat that heat away but what happens when the body cannot do that what happens if there is enough humidity in the air that are sweat has nowhere to go. What evaporation is possible because water vapor is less dense than oxygen and nitrogen which comprises the air around us so when it leaves our body and naturally Rises away from us but if the air around us is saturated with water already. 

[47:54] There's nowhere for that evaporated water vapor to go and her body cannot cool down. 

Daniel Forkner:  [47:59] This is where the concept of wet bulb temperature comes into play wet-bulb temperature is the temperature of a surface that is being constantly cool. Through water evaporation and it's really easy to measure, if you take a standard thermometer or heat detector and you put a soaked cloth or sock or something over it, you'll find out what the wet-bulb temperature is it's always going to be less than the standard air temperature and it simulates the temperature of our skin as it cools itself through sweat. 

David Torcivia:  [48:29] And in hot conditions in order to maintain that core body temperature of 37 degrees Celsius will our skin cannot exceed 35. Degrees Celsius temperature this measure of ambient air temperature and humidity reaches that 35c will there's nothing our body can do to maintain core temperature. 

[48:49] Basically cook and died. 

Daniel Forkner:  [48:52] And we should clarify David the point at which this wet-bulb temperature gets so high that we simply died. 35 degrees Celsius. Well that applies to a human being that is but naked experiencing extremely fast Gail strength wins while lying Motionless in the shade. Oh and constantly being doused with water. Once you reach this 35 degrees Celsius wet-bulb temperature there is nothing your body can do to survive the only thing that can prevent that is air conditioning. 

David Torcivia:  [49:26] And so it's not just a matter of oh it's 35 degrees Celsius that means but it's a lot more complicated and it ends up being almost a graph of different temperatures and humidity levels that affect. Ultimate web. Temperature a moderately High atmospheric temperature but a high humidity level can have a higher wet-bulb temperature in a very high atmospheric temperature and low humidity or dry heat to speak. And the sounds very confusing when you're trying to explain it down all these terms but in practicality you can understand it very well you go outside during the dry heat you're sweating your hot 210 it's 35 it's 40 degrees celsius outside whatever it is. Your body is able to cool itself your sweat isn't pulling its carried away you're uncomfortable but it's not too bad. 

Daniel Forkner:  [50:10] Actually David I've been in the midwestern United States and I've done some hikes in the desert of Utah I've been to the Grand Canyon before in which really interesting is that you can be hiking all day in extreme heat. But you don't even see the sweat on your body it evaporate so fast. 

David Torcivia:  [50:28] Yeah as long as long as you stay hydrated you're ultimately going to be fine because that humidity level is so low. 

Daniel Forkner:  [50:33] And if you're staying hydrated and drinking water you don't even get that tired. 

David Torcivia:  [50:37] But of course Daniel and I are not from the dry Midwest we are from the humid South and there a 90 degree Fahrenheit temperature 35 degrees C. In a high humidity is brutal if you like your cooking but you stand around your soaps in your sweat because it just isn't going anywhere it's not being carried away. So this is a very ready example of when wet bulb temperature is approaching the actual atmospheric temperature and he's very high humidity levels. Functional wet-bulb temperature becomes much closer to what you're actually feeling or seeing on a thermometer and just like all of us have experienced when you working in these high humidity high temperature areas you get tired quickly your exhaust yourself with very little effort. Well wet-bulb that 35° c limit on human life it becomes much slower if you are doing anything active at all if there's no wind if you step out into the sun if you're not healthy if you're old or young are frail. Anything you do that makes your body more stress than it normally is. 

[51:45] Ideal situation your functional wet-bulb temperature for human life begins to become impossible is much lower and all that much more tangible in this increasingly hot increasingly humid climate change based future. 

Daniel Forkner:  [51:58] And so far the highest recorded wet-bulb temperature has been 31 degrees Celsius. And for a long time people assumed it wouldn't Rise Above This and that has to do with that convection process that we introduced in the beginning of this episode, which is that as air becomes more humid and it warms up what the more likely it is to rise into the atmosphere where it can then be cool down and release that water as rain or thunderstorms. But like we mentioned as more and more humidity is added to our atmosphere. This injection of energy as a result of climate change will that threshold is raised that are that wants to rise is in a warmer atmosphere so it takes even greater heat or it to rise. And there have been some papers that have attempted to model what the future of our world looks like in terms of the wet-bulb temperatures will be experiencing in different regions and some of its going to be determined by local conditions. So for example the Arabian Gulf region which is Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq to those countries that border the Arabian or Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. This is one region that's going to be experiencing a higher wet-bulb temperature than others because of the local conditions they're the normal process of convection, is interrupted by specific are patterns that have to do with the monsoon regions to the east you had the Red Sea and the gulf which both absorb a relatively high amount of sunlight and all that heat causes more water to evaporate which raises the wet-bulb temperature. 

Future Temperatures [53:27] And the Sea Breeze also brings this tremendous hot air into coastal city.  [53:32] And because of the combination of these processes beginning in about 50 years all coastal region surrounding the gulf and the Red Sea. Will begin experiencing maximum temperatures above the current 31° Celsius wet-bulb Maxima. And some of these regions will be above 35 degrees which will make them completely uninhabitable. In other areas where the wet-bulb temperature does not exceed 35 degrees Celsius. Will the regular ambient temperature my go higher than 60 degrees Celsius such as in Kuwait which is 140 degrees Fahrenheit. 

David Torcivia:  [54:08] For those of you curious at 60° c a relative humidity of just 20% what's that went full figure over 35. 

Daniel Forkner:  [54:16] Well that's an interesting way to phrase it David. If humidity Rises to some percent then wet-bulb temperature is at a dangerous level and that's what stands out to me the most about this increasingly hot environment. The fact that this heat will make some regions of our world dangerous to live in but it won't necessarily be obvious in its approach. There are places with population densities as high as 1 billion people wear as we'll see what both temperature has a chance of reaching fatal levels at different times throughout the year. And because that chance is based on a number of hard to predict factors like wind speed humidity level direct sunlight and temperature, people will continue to live in regions that experience uninhabitable conditions at certain parts of the year but there will be little to no warning before local weather patterns, cuz large numbers of people to Simply die so what does the future look like in terms of this extreme temperature it's going to be hot. 

David Torcivia:  [55:18] By the 26th he's some 700 million people could experience a wet bulb temperature of 32 degrees C per year with one or two events every single. 

Daniel Forkner:  [55:30] About 250 million people could experience a 33° c wet-bulb temperature every year and 50 million people 34 degrees Celsius. 

David Torcivia:  [55:42] And we mentioned that a wet bulb temperature of 35 C is the point of which any human lying still etcetera will die but that practical living. Where wife we're not in perfect conditions we can survive it. Researchers believe that it's just about 32 degrees Celsius that's the point at which doing things outside become difficult or impossible and will kill you depending on your age and health. And again that figure by 2060 700 million people expected to experiences temperature at least once every single year. 

Daniel Forkner:  [56:14] And that's by the 2060 so what are we looking at by 2100 the end of the century. 

[56:20] If we continue with the current trends of greenhouse gas emissions three out of every four people in the world will be exposed to heat conditions every single year that have a high chance of death, and some of the places that will experience this the most will be in places like southeast United States. Latin America Africa and the Middle East South Asia India and parts of Australia. 

David Torcivia:  [56:44] More recent research from 2017 that by the 27th he's he's high wet-bulb readings in Elk her maybe once a year could in fact Prevail a hundred. 250 days of the year so third to two-thirds of the year in some parts of the tropics and it's not just the tropics here in the southeast United States wet-bulb temperatures now sometimes reach in already press at 29 or 30 degrees Celsius, but by the 27th or 28th esds weather events that occurred 25 to 40 days every single. 

[57:15] These are conditions that make it almost impossible to work outside which is not going to be good for any of the local economy in this area. 

Daniel Forkner:  [57:22] And you mentioned the difference between dry temperatures and humid temperatures and how humid temperatures feel much worse than dry ones. Was not an exact science but trying to figure out what it feels like to be in a 35° Celsius wet-bulb temperature some researchers think that the equivalent dry temperature feeling. Is close to a hundred and seventy degrees Fahrenheit or. 

David Torcivia:  [57:45] 77 degrees Celsius. 

Daniel Forkner:  [57:47] Which is hot David. 

David Torcivia:  [57:49] Okay so this is Blake Daniel you were basically saying that we are approaching a biological limit to what people can survive. In these conversations that we've had in the show so far we've been through these problems before but we're always insinuated that if we are clever and if we are responsible then they might be things that we can do to get around this. 

[58:10] With wet-bulb temperatures approaching 35c approaching that 30 31 32 Degree deadly marks for most humanity and making it impossible to even really functionally go outside anymore. Predominantly like we said in areas that don't have air conditioning or can't rely on electricity all day long. Well this is a giant problem that we can't just adapt around there's no answer here that says well for sustainable would move away from these things that we'll be able to survive because. At least for wet-bulb the conversation ends that every single person on Earth is going to be in these environments needs access to air conditioning. And that's the least sustainable thing will ever stay on the show. 

Daniel Forkner:  [58:50] It's a huge contradiction because the air conditioning which is so inefficient which is taking so much energy is itself contributing to the very thing that is causing the need for air conditioning in the first place. 

David Torcivia:  [59:04] I can imagine a future words you know 2060 2075 NE you in his passing some sort of resolution that sync access to air conditioning is a human right, but it might be something that we see and someday after these first mega heat waves come rolling through and the world becomes associated with the idea of wet-bulb went be surprised that this is what happens which is crazy to wrap my mind around. 

Daniel Forkner:  [59:26] And of course in my mind this is just even more reason to stop producing so much greenhouse gas because again a lot of these predictions in terms of what the future looks like in terms of heat, well it's based on business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions that's what's driving this heat in the first place. 

David Torcivia:  [59:44] Wow ignoring feedback loops I got to plug that in there cuz I know. I know we love we love talking about busy as usual but business-as-usual according to groups like The ipcc also ignores a lot of people back loops, so their business as usual even then is conservative to what we're actually seeing play out, which is maybe one of the reasons why we seeing so many articles that have the headline faster-than-expected worse-than-expected and ultimately unfortunately deadlier than thought possible. 

Daniel Forkner:  [1:00:12] Well I'm sure the air conditioning industry won't have any problem with this Rising heat and that conflict between. Economics and sustainability in our ability to survive, isn't part probably why some of these reports that the ipcc endorses and some of these predictions about how business as usual is contributing to this climate change are so conservative in their estimates because, acknowledging the problem of this climate change is ultimately bad for business. Because so much of our economic activity is contributing to it to acknowledge that means that we would have to curtail our economic activity and that's just something that nevermind businesses don't want to put a lot of countries don't want. A lot of Nations that are trying to compete with the more established developed countries. 

David Torcivia:  [1:00:58] And maybe even be on that when we're honest about the numbers that we're actually facing, let me look at how much CO2 + CO2 equivalents are actually entering the atmosphere weather from anthropogenic sources or from natural sources or these feedback loops that we triggered turned on with our actions. 

[1:01:15] We picture begins to look a lot more hopeless is the world able to do anything when where they're facing realistically for c5c degrees Celsius remember when we first set these limits years ago 1C was the line that could not be passed. Anything beyond that would be catastrophic and here we sit today recording the show at a little over .9 C depending on which Benchmark you're looking at. Any modified that goal to be saying 1.5 C is the one that we actually couldn't pass. Well when it look like we were going to go to that one too because no one wanted to actually play this game work. You have to hurt you or economy hurt yourself in order to make a big difference. Actually impact the world. Well we raise that limit instead did you say don't nevermind we were wrong it says it's definitely to see that's that's the don't cross that one.  [1:02:03] Imagine the next kind of conference told me like oh yeah definitely it's 2.5 don't worry guys we still have plenty of time we don't need to worry about any of this back sword Axe and also will integrate me know even more magical solution in our modeling.  Variable Benchmarks [1:02:17] But we just been kicking the can down the road for decades and now we can start to see where this is finally going to lead and it is these Mega heat waves all across the world. Devastating livestock, devastating agriculture cutting yields tin 20% even when we're not facing these complete crop failures like we see what century was coffee with cocoa. 

Daniel Forkner:  [1:02:38] My favorite drink and my favorite food. 

David Torcivia:  [1:02:41] Do stressing our energy infrastructure having to rebuild our world to deal with these higher temperatures in the cost associated with that and ultimately to the human lives that will be lost because of this. Which again there's nothing we can do except extended air conditioning in the power for it maybe it once again the only time we're going to be recommending techno fixes here on this show but that is it we're out of options when it comes to these ultrawf. Scenarios. Leading up to that though there are some small things candies and individuals can do building new houses we need to be responsible and thinking about the fact that we are facing a very hot future, I'll just need to be designed in order to be more economic in their cooling practices so that even if AC isn't running the house it themselves are efficient there like colored they have blinds and overhangs or build facing the right way vegetation is there to Shield them, we talked about this before designing roads that are a much lighter cooler more reflective of heat so we don't have these Urban heat island. 

What Can We Do? [1:03:40] Of course trying to do that in a sustainable way that doesn't involve plastic paint covering all our roads that eventually find its way into the animals of the ocean and ultimately into each and every one of us.  [1:03:50] Increase research on crops that are Hardy things like Durham weed that maybe can survive these potential heat waves even a little bit better. As well as research on the health impacts of heat on both people on livestock and agriculture as a whole. And ultimately maybe this is a good chance for us collectively and globally as a world population to reflect on the situation that we've gotten ourselves into. There's no easy way out of this and these temperatures don't stop rising in 2016-2017 and 2100 they will continue to rise well into the future beyond that time, which ended in these conversations about the future in 2120 estimates in but make no mistake these temperatures will continue Rising. Is 35 see what bowl threshold will be reached increasingly commonly in larger parts of the world. We might be some future were large swath for the world the most heavily populated parts of the world are just purely uninhabitable. 

Daniel Forkner:  [1:04:44] And once again these uninhabitable heat events will likely be sporadic and hard to predict which means it may be a good time to start thinking now about our long-term preparedness to withstand extreme heat, and to encourage communities especially and more outdoor labor-intensive economy, to have procedures and plans in place for responding quickly to sudden onset of high wet-bulb temperatures and following along that line, perhaps we in wealthier countries should consider the ethical nature of supporting an economy that forces laborers in the tropics to risk their lives in dangerous heat condition. 

[1:05:31] For our consumption in the luxury and comfort of air-conditioned buildings. 

David Torcivia:  [1:05:37] Are wraps up another week here at ashes ashes that's a lot to process but I hope you'll be thinking about it for the next couple days. You like to learn more about any of the things we talked about or maybe play with the cool wet-bulb calculator or find that link sources and are full transcript of this episode you can do all of that and much more on our website at ashes ashes. O r g. 

Daniel Forkner:  [1:06:00] A lot of time and research goes into making these episode possible and we will never use ads to support this show and we will never purchase ads as effective as that might. 

[1:06:10] To crowd your newsfeed so if you like this show and you would like us to keep going you can support us by giving us a review and recommending us to a friend. Also we have an email address it's contact at ashes ashes. O RG encourage you to send us your thoughts positive or negative will read it. 

David Torcivia:  [1:06:30] You can also find us on your favorite social media Network. 

[1:06:33] Ashes ashes cast next week we're going to take a break from all the negative news and look at something positive some people working towards a more sustainable practical future I'm a really excited about this and hope you'll tune in for that discussion but until then this is ashes ashes. 

Chapters

David Torcivia: [0:00] I'm David torcivia.

Daniel Forkner: [0:02] I'm Daniel forkner.

David Torcivia: [0:04] And this is ashes ashes show about systemic issues cracks in civilization collapse of the environment and if we're unlucky the end of the world.

Daniel Forkner: [0:14] But if we learn from all this maybe we can stop that the world might be broken but it doesn't have to be.

Daniel Forkner: [0:37] And this episode is really timely for me personally David because here in the southeast United States summer just arrived and it is hot it is humid and it's only going to get worse.

David Torcivia: [0:48] It's a frigid 53 degrees 12 degrees Celsius here up in New York so I don't entirely sympathize with you.

Daniel Forkner: [0:56] I'm a little jealous.

David Torcivia: [0:58] But with that in mind we'll It's Just Jump Right In.

David Torcivia: [2:01] So pretty much the whole world.

David Torcivia: [3:15] 12 years I want to interrupt you just for second Daniel and emphasize how short of a time that is a lot of the times when we have a conversation that says woman coming decades by the end of the century but this is 12 years that's the very near future.

David Torcivia: [3:56] Send all bad though I'm in the Arctic needs those clouds already.

Daniel Forkner: [3:59] I suppose the clouds will add to the Albedo in the Arctic and maybe yeah.

David Torcivia: [4:03] Is it they call me David mr. positive torcivia.

Daniel Forkner: [4:06] I don't think anybody calls you.

David Torcivia: [4:07] Let's do this science.

Daniel Forkner: [4:10] Did you ever heard of convection before.

David Torcivia: [4:12] Just like my toaster oven.

David Torcivia: [10:46] Anthony Fair Daniel it's not that the planes can't withstand 120 degrees heat like they selling turn into this molten pile of aluminum on the runway but just a quirk in the way that flight happens.

David Torcivia: [12:25] Daniel I think that's probably roads it turns out building roads that don't melt in high temperatures is with a guest expensive. So most roads are designed to withstand up to 50 degrees Celsius above that temperature they start melting and to be fair that's pretty hot.

David Torcivia: [14:31] It's 47 degrees Celsius for those keeping track at home.

Daniel Forkner: [14:35] Yeah there's going to be a lot of temperatures in this episode David Celsius we've got Fahrenheit fair with us will try to translate some of them but can't get them all.

David Torcivia: [16:10] Planes Trains and Automobiles.

Daniel Forkner: [16:12] What about the actual Vehicles themselves.

Daniel Forkner: [16:37] The iPhone for example can only operate between about 32 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit which is between 0 and 35 degrees Celsius.

Daniel Forkner: [21:20] Or whether it's on the coast where they're going to be experiencing Rising Seas.

David Torcivia: [27:12] Yeah but where's the research on at what temperature corn starts popping into popcorn directly the fields and how much microwave power that would say.

Daniel Forkner: [27:21] The research for that David is still pending but we are.

David Torcivia: [28:21] Get to the point Daniel is my coffee safe or not come on we got to talk about what's important here.

David Torcivia: [28:53] Further there was no lower bound on the study scientists just look at 49 degrees Celsius and they have no idea what it could be 4745 in which case that high upper body temperature is even lower.

Daniel Forkner: [30:36] Which as we discussed in our sugar episode David is.

David Torcivia: [30:40] No bueno.

Daniel Forkner: [30:40] Is not good.

David Torcivia: [30:42] Hubris of a scientific knowledge is not limited to Simply researching the agricultural plants but also with life and livestock itself.

David Torcivia: [32:51] Course it's not just livestock that will be suffering under these increased heat but ourselves that is high temperatures of dramatic effects on our bodies in all sorts of different interesting and unexpected ways.

David Torcivia: [39:05] That is one third of the world's population to be clear.

David Torcivia: [39:50] And it's not just us that are saying that in the regions of the world that we most heavily impacted by heat economic productivity is expected to decline by 18% by 2050 and it's not hard to imagine why.

David Torcivia: [44:20] But these debts are occurring right.

Daniel Forkner: [46:25] We've been talking about temperatures that are hot and how bad it is when things get too hot but again I suppose someone could still try to argue the point.

David Torcivia: [50:28] Yeah as long as long as you stay hydrated you're ultimately going to be fine because that humidity level is so low.

Daniel Forkner: [50:33] And if you're staying hydrated and drinking water you don't even get that tired.

David Torcivia: [54:08] For those of you curious at 60° c a relative humidity of just 20% what's that went full figure over 35.

David Torcivia: [55:18] By the 26th he's some 700 million people could experience a wet bulb temperature of 32 degrees C per year with one or two events every single.

Daniel Forkner: [55:30] About 250 million people could experience a 33° c wet-bulb temperature every year and 50 million people 34 degrees Celsius.

Daniel Forkner: [56:14] And that's by the 2060 so what are we looking at by 2100 the end of the century.

David Torcivia: [57:45] 77 degrees Celsius.

Daniel Forkner: [57:47] Which is hot David.

Daniel Forkner: [58:50] It's a huge contradiction because the air conditioning which is so inefficient which is taking so much energy is itself contributing to the very thing that is causing the need for air conditioning in the first place.

Daniel Forkner: [1:02:38] My favorite drink and my favorite food.

Daniel Forkner: [1:06:00] A lot of time and research goes into making these episode possible and we will never use ads to support this show and we will never purchase ads as effective as that might.

David Torcivia: [1:06:30] You can also find us on your favorite social media Network.

Daniel Forkner: [1:06:48] Bye.

David Torcivia: [1:06:49] Goodbye.