Discussing the broken state of the world - whether that's climate change, our tech dystopia, or our rapidly changing society - and what we can do about it.
Thank you Camila for completing this difficult transcript!
2017, Daniel Forkner, David Torcivia Ashes Ashes https://ashesashes.org
A disaster is happening in slow motion at our planet's poles and climate change is to blame. In this, the inaugural episode of Ashes Ashes, we explore the melting polar ice caps, the science behind this process, and what that might mean for humanity's future. Transcript
David Torcivia
[00:01] Guess I should start...
David Torcivia
[00:01] Hi, this is David Torcivia
Daniel Forkner
[00:03] And this is Daniel Forkner
David Torcivia
[00:05] And we are here with Ashes Ashes. A podcast about the collapse of the world, and society at large. I just want to start off by saying that neither of us are even remotely qualified to talk about any of these subjects.
Daniel Forkner
[00:18] I'm certainly not qualified.
David Torcivia
[00:20] And here we are anyway. talking to you on a podcast. Which by the way, I absolutely hate. But it's the format to be on (I hear) these days. And no one's reading my newsletters. So. Here I am, coming directly into your ears.
Daniel Forkner
[00:27] I think podcast is going to be a good format for this. The newsletter's good but this is going to bring it down to a more relatable level.
David Torcivia
[00:41] Yeah, and that's really the goal for the podcast as a whole. I mean, we hear a lot of things in the news like, "oh this is so terrible... with the politics, the economy, climate change..." all this bad stuff happening. This year especially was marked by natural disasters: hurricanes, the wildfires out west. Lots of problems all around the world. And we hear all this talk about, like, "thing are bad, things are bad".
[01:05] But at the same time, on the other hand, we hear this discussion of how we live in the greatest time of humanity. That, you know, there's "less poor", poverty is lower than it ever has been, life expediencies are high, people are happier, people are wealthier. And there's a disconnect, sort of, between what people see in the world, see around them, and what they feel personally is going on.
[01:23] So we're gonna explore some of that, we're going to explore what's actually going on. What the future really holds, despite some of the rosy predictions of the media, and our politicians and business leaders. And see how all these different elements... nature, climate change... business politics... the things going on around the world... are all really interconnected, and brought together through the various strands that connect each and everyone of us.
[01:46] We're going to talk about specific events in the world. We're going to be talking about things going on all around us all the time, and we're really going to explore how all of this connects. And the things that we can do about it and things that we can't do about it, and what that means for our future. We're both really excited to talk about this stuff.
[02:04] And we're going to jump into a very big topic today. Nothing in particular news-wise to do with this, but something that really has huge impacts on both our future and the world as a whole. Daniel, why don't you take us in?
Daniel Forkner
[02:19] Alright, I'm really excited too. Today we're going to be talking about the Arctic Ocean, and some of the things going on there that you might be wanting to be aware of. Where do you think we should start, David? in the Arctic?
David Torcivia
[02:29] Well, let's talk about what the Arctic is exactly, right?
[02:33] So, we have two poles on the world, with the Arctic and the Antarctic, and we're going to be paying most of our attention to the Arctic because it's where most of the climate science and interest lies. And that's because the Arctic is mostly an ocean. It's an ocean and it has ice most of the year, if not the entire year. Versus Antarctica, which is a solid land mass, with ice on it. While what will happen to the Antarctic is very important, the effects on that land mass is much less dramatic for the rest of the world than what's going on in the Arctic. And the big reason why that's the case is because of the ocean.
[03:03] The Arctic Ocean, which acts as the top connector between the oceans on the East and the West, is really important ton way that heat is dispensed around the world
Daniel Forkner
[03:14] Yeah, that was one thing that really interested me (or surprised me) when I was reading up about some of this- is how these oceans are so interconnected. How some of the icebergs that are in the Arctic are actually influenced by the heat in different layers of the ocean that are coming from different parts of the world. I didn't really quite understand it though, to be honest. Maybe you can explain how the warmer water in the bottom of the ocean comes up into the Arctic?
David Torcivia
[03:39] Yeah, and that's a really excellent point, Daniel. And the big driver for this is something called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Which is a word I'm never going to say again, so we'll just call it AMOC for short.
[03:49] Man, if you've ever seen that movie- that disaster movie Day After Tomorrow, when the Atlantic current shuts down, and the world like, freezes? And the guy has to hide in a freezer in like, a fast food restaurant, or else he'll freeze to death as soon as the shadow touches him?
Daniel Forkner
[04:04] Yeah, I remember that one. I think wolves were a big risk in that movie.
David Torcivia
[04:08] Yeah. those digital wolves... I mean, the only real risk for all of us is having to sit through that.
[04:12] But that movie was more less about this ocean current slowing and ultimately shutting down, and throwing out the heat exchange of that ocean all out of whack. And as ridiculous and silly is that movie is, it is based on scientific ideas. And this actually is a concern from climate scientists - and from other people - that we might actually be coming into a sort-of Day After Tomorrow scenario, if not that extreme.
[04:41] But this is important. Because
[05:14] And there's a couple things that might cause concern for this AMOC. One of them is all the glaciers melting in Greenland. All this cold freshwater melts on the land, goes into the ocean- and this places all this warm, salty water from the mid-latitudes. It slows this current down, slows this process (that's a conversation for another time). But the same thing is happening in the Arctic, with this changing pattern: as more ice is melting and less ice is being formed in the first place. And that's a conversation we'll have in just a moment.
Daniel Forkner
[05:30] So You mentioned how the Arctic and the ocean water that swirls there, the different temperatures can have effects on weather patterns around the world... Recently we've had a big wildfire in California, and I've read some reports that link things like wildfires on the west coast with some of these changing patterns in the Arctic. Is that true? I mean, how linked are these two things?
David Torcivia
[06:07] Yeah, okay. So: the Arctic itself is sort of a place where all this excess energy of the Earth moves up to and then gets dissipated... because it's so much colder, it brings all this excess power and stuff, and cools it down [letting us] have a more stable climate.
[06:26] And as the Arctic warms up (and it warms up much faster than the rest of the world, because all this heat is carried up there, sort of like a battery) this process of heating faster than the rest of the world is called "Arctic amplification". And this application has huge effects on the weather around the world. The wildfires you mentioned are caused by this sort of Meandering that's appeared in the past few years of the jet stream (and everybody knows the "Jet Stream" because it's got the coolest name of any weather phenomenon) and you can really feel it, you know? when you're flying across the country and you go one way, and it's shorter than the other, it's because you have those favorable winds of the jet stream.
[07:01] And it just seemed it really has a huge effect of the weather all around the world. Right now in the Western part of the United States, this jet stream has been bringing warm, dry air. And that has been a huge contribution to the wildfires that are occurring out there.
[07:15] At the same time which we saw the meandering of the jet stream cause these big stalls and ridges, that was the reason that Hurricane Harvey just stalled out over Houston. And instead of moving up through the rest of the country and dissipating like hurricanes and tropical storms normally do, and say got trapped by this manner jet stream and just sat there dumping all the water on the city for days and days and days... and causing that unprecedented damage.
[07:38] Which was last I saw- that storm alone was estimated over 200 billion dollars. Which makes it the most expensive natural disaster in human history. Followed only by the 2011 earthquake and tsunamis in Japan.
Daniel Forkner
[07:51] Yeah, that's pretty bad. I went out to Houston in a week or two afterwards, and my Aunt was driving around and showing me some of the- the entire highways that had been overrun by water, businesses completely shut down, lot of houses flooded, that stuff...
David Torcivia
[08:06] Yeah. And it's a huge tragedy. And while we like to blame it on these hot waters in the Caribbean and in the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely part of the equation... what caused- what made that storm itself so damaging is actually the Arctic. So we usually think of the Arctic assisting was far away. and like yeah- "Yeah, I guess the melting ice is bad, and I guess it's bad for polar bears" or "the Antarctic is bad for penguins"... but that's that's where this equation ends. And we don't realize how much these changes affect the rest of the world. And we haven't even gotten into the really, really bad stuff yet.
Daniel Forkner
[08:39] We talked about how these changes impact our day-to-day, but are we responsible for them? how much do we play a role in them, and is there anything we can do about it? I mean what should we be aware of in terms of how we are playing a role in this?
David Torcivia
[08:51] Well, sure, I mean that's a really broad question- and something that we could spend a lot of time on. But in short: Yes. We are hugely responsible for this. We're not going to sit here and pretend that, "oh, yeah, you know there's a natural component to global warming and then humans may or may not contribute to it" like the politically say, talking points to it. This is something that is almost entirely anthropologically caused- put out just- a huge amount of greenhouse gases. Humankind has absolutely been the primary (and by a lot) driver of this change.
[09:22] And while there are natural systems influencing this, and there are natural feedback systems that have suddenly started kicking in because of our contributions could have passed these trigger points... the vast majority of it up until very recently has been human activity. And that's only recently been met by natural contributions from things like melting permafrost, and melting methane deposits beneath the Arctic (which is something we'll get to shortly)
[09:48] And so, yes. We're the ones ruining the world. and destroying the Arctic. But why does that matter? right? all this ice and stuff... I see a lot of people, a lot of politicians talk about the Arctic: "oh, it's a good thing, Arctic melts here. We can use this fabled Northwest Passage..." which isn't a fable anymore, it's something you can actively do. and there are reports on the ship that made the first pass each year. It's a faster way to ship around then then going all the way down to Panama Canal or paying even farther south so it's exciting for Commerce, there's a lot of speculation that there are oil and gas deposits that can be mined and be used to even, further our contribution to the CO2, and as well as other Rare Earth elements and things in the bottom of the ocean. There's a cold war almost, [involving] geologists from Russia and the United States trying to figure out who gets tips on who and, Canada too. And also the Danes with their claim from Green Greenland.
Daniel Forkner
[10:55] A lot of people trying to get into the Arctic. I think I also read a report though, that as attractive as it is, it's actually more difficult to access some of the resources in the Arctic than previously thought. And some of the people trying to use the northern passage for trade routes are finding it to be a little bit more difficult, too costly. There’s a lot of icebergs floating around so you got to spend a lot more on reinforcing ship hulls and things like that.
David Torcivia
[11:00] Yeah, right now it's not economically viable for almost everything but- and I say this with a hint of irony- the hope from these people is is that this melting process will continue, and there will be longer and longer periods with little to no ice. To enable these economic activities to occur. But of course the economic impacts from a warming Arctic vastly, vastly outweigh whatever positive benefits we get from it. And so, let's talk about why? And why less ice is just so terrible for the world and our climate.
Daniel Forkner
[11:40] Every time I've been on the past that I've heard reports of ice caps melting icebergs melting, I always connected that risk with the fact that it rises the sea level? and you know, I always had pictures like... “Oh, you know any City that's on the coast might have to move in a little bit, obviously. It might be, inconvenient for beach front property when the sea waters rise...” but probably there's a lot more to it than, I think.
David Torcivia
[12:10] Oh yeah, and actually a lot of this is sea ice. Which means is already on the ocean, and so that doesn't actually affect any sort of sea level rise. Think about it like this- if you have a glass of water, and it has an ice cube in it, as an ice cube melts, it doesn't overflow your glass. Is it displacement and everything is already there. The concern with rising sea levels is ice that’s already on land, so things like Greenland which is covered in extremely thick ice that melts, and then drains into the ocean and causes sea level rise from that.
[12:35] But the big concern with sea ice is that it's basically a big reflector. So: I'm from the south, and it gets really hot in the summer. I drive a black car. Which was a mistake. You leave them out in the sun and it's basically a little oven. And I would try and fight that- I had one of those like- shiny screens you put in your window? like in the hood? you know I'm talking about.
Daniel Forkner
[12:56] Yeah you're actually one of the few people… actually, you are the only people I've known that actually used that reflector in their windshield.
David Torcivia
[13:02] Yeah, I mean... I was really anal about it ‘cause my car gets so hot. And my hope is that that little thing is going to reflect some of that sun back into, the atmosphere. Whatever. And just keep it out of the inside of my car. And it did work! it made a difference. I mean, my car was still roasting, but it made a difference. Maybe not as much as driving a white car would have.
Daniel Forkner
[13:25] So you’re saying the Earth is losing its windshield reflector.
David Torcivia
[13:28] Yeah, I mean that’s a really simple way of putting it. But yeah. Think about it this way... Ocean water. Y’know, it's dark blue. It's black. It absorbs a lot of heat because that's what water does. Whereas ice’s white, or light blue. And reflective. So all this sunlight coming in, especially in the summer where they have almost 24 hour days and light’s constantly beating down it... and obviously that means the light isn't as intense as it is along the tropics... but it still adds up. And it adds a lot of energy into the system. And when you have lots of ice there, mostly energy is reflected back up... into the sky... and out into space. But once that ice is gone it's absorbed into the ocean itself. And this is the start of the big feedback loop: as that ocean absorbs this heat and warms up it, becomes harder to freeze ice. And when it becomes harder to freeze ice, that means the freezing season comes in... you know, a few days. Or a few weeks later. And then happens slower... and then when it becomes time for melt- there's less ice there. And as I said, the ice there is thinner and not as healthy as as sea ice should be. And then that means a little bit more ice melts that year. And this keeps happening, and in each year a little bit more ice melts…. and there's seasonal variations... ‘cause some years are cooler, or some of them are warmer… some years have more cloud cover… some years is sunny the whole time... There's a lot of other things that that impact this.
Daniel Forkner
[14:51] Even the age of the ice, too. I found it really interesting that the ice that’s older is more reflective, because the water that does melt gets caught in jagged spaces. Whereas the newer ice that forms, is a lot smoother, and the water that melts on top of that gets spread out more evenly. Which you know ,reduces the reflectivity more.
David Torcivia
[15:12] Yeah and that forms these things called melt pools, which which themselves are dark and contributes more to the direct melting of the ice from both the top and the bottom.
Daniel Forkner
[15:15] Fun facts about ice.
David Torcivia
[15:19] Fun facts about ice. And, a lot of this research right now is focused on different types of covering and how snow or rain impacts this snow early in the season. In the freezing season is terrible for developing ice because it acts as an isolation. And makes it harder for more ice to develop. There’s no ice late in the freezing season and in the beginning of the melting season acts in the opposite way, it that prevents ice melt and acts as a blanket of the ice to insulate it from the rays of the sun. And so these little seasonal fluctuations and variations are very important and part of this equation. But in general the trend has been… More energy in a system. More heat in the Arctic. Less ice. And you can see this every year and it's been going on for decades, and it’s been getting worse all the time. 2016 was one of the worst freezing seasons we've had in a long time, they were fortunate than we had a cool really cool summer. So the Melt wasn't so bad, but the ice there is very sick.
[16:36] It's mostly new ice, it's broken up... there's very little multi-year ice left. The ice that’s left is much thinner and weaker, to the point where it's actually impacting research. Positions where they used to be able to stand and do a lot of research in and put beacons and things- now the ice is literally rotting. It’s filled with holes and cracks and it's not safe to stand on. This is happening both in the Arctic and Antarctic. I think I read just recently that- what was, it Daniel? they had to abandon a research station down there?
[16:46] Yeah. One of the cracks that is forming threatened one of their supply lines. And they also wanted to move more inland because one of the cracks threatens a calving, I think- of the ice sheet.
[16:58] This is impacting the ice itself as well as our ability to research the ice and get good data on it. In order to better understand exactly what is happening and what the future might hold.
[17:26] So this heat that's coming in the system from the [?] Albedo isn't the only part of the heat equation. All this extra water that’s being pumped into the system is having other effects too. Some of it becomes water vapor, which we always like to point out- you know : “CO2! CO2! that's the big greenhouse gas!”... but just as important is water vapor. It has a huge, huge greenhouse effect. As well as contributing more energy into the system and causing huge dramatic swings in weather. We've had these these big pop-up record rain storms for the past couple of years, and that's because there's a lot more moisture just in the atmosphere in general. Some people are calling these “rain bombs” but a lot of it has to do with the fact that there's just more water in the system. And this melting ice is a big contributor that. and it's especially bad in the Arctic, because as this ice melts and has less ice freezes it forms almost a blanket of water vapor over itself, and over the Arctic as a whole. Which acts as a blanket trapping in more heat. On the flip side though, this also is causing more clouds. And we’re having cooler cloudy or summers from this, so hopefully that continues and we get a little bit of respite from this from this feedback loop that's ‘causing a little bit of slow cooling, despite the fact that we are pumping more and more energy in the system all the time.
Daniel Forkner
[18:23] Earlier you mentioned- when we start talking about the Arctic- that it's a huge contributor to some of the problems around the climate... Why is the Arctic so important? I mean, what sets it apart from some of the other climate issues that we are hearing about?
David Torcivia
[18:57] That's a really good question. So, we talked a little bit about the wandering of the jet stream which causes huge effects both local and around the world. It's impacting storms all the way and in the tropics [with these] hurricanes. Things that we wouldn't think are influenced by the Arctic at all. And it can cause- if you remember a few years ago, that that polar vortex phenomenon? where we had these extreme dips of Arctic air, coming down south in the country? the Northeast had a lot of it, but it was dipping down as far south into Georgia and Florida. You know, really impacting heating homes... as well as as crops… and things like that…
[19:20] And these are caused by the fact that the jet stream is much more sporadic, much more unpredictable and behaving for more wildly than we've ever seen before. So. And we have seen more extremes, causing records both highs and lows, and it's because there's just more energy being pumped into the system itself.
[19:38] And so the big scare is that as this ice continues to melt, we're going to get through this thing called the Blue Ocean event. Which is, depending on who you ask- less than 10% of ice left during the summer melt months. And that's when things are really going to get cooking. ‘Cause all this water is going to be exposed to the sun. And we're going to be seeing a huge amount of energy pumped into this system that wasn't before, and remember- the poles are about dissipating all the excess heat and excess energy that comes out from the tropics where the sun is beating down intensely all year, and the heat spirals up and gets up to the North and the South, and it dissipates there- where there’s less energy and it's frozen, or it's buried into the ocean and it disappears, and we don't have to worry about it. But this battery has been charging, and it’s been filling up with heat. And the ocean depths are warming. And ocean is a whole is warming because of this. and it threatens both some of these currents that we depend on for our climate - and this isn't a question of like, “oh. Yeah, you know the weather, is going to change like, it could cause big storms!” but like... traumatic climate shifts. And we're not talking about climate change, or climate warming. We're talking about like, this area which depends on warm. From the tropics brought up through these ocean currents, to very high latitudes, like most of Western Europe- Is very high latitudes compared to what we have in the United States... but it’s warmed primarily through this Atlantic current carrying it all up.
[21:06] And as this current slows and weekends because of actions in the Arctic and through melting ice in Greenland, that climate may shift and we may see things cool down. The latest predictions I saw have more super-hot, super-dry summer and heat waves like- what they call it? the devil heat wave...
[21:27] But this has huge potential for affecting crops in agriculture and ways of living that we just may not be prepared for as a society or culture.
Daniel Forkner
[21:33] You say we might not be prepared for it, but it seems like there's a lot of efforts globally to curb carbon emissions... to help mitigate the consequences of climate change… We've got, you know, the Paris agreement (which obviously the United States has some controversy around our participation in that) but a lot of people are coming together, a lot of countries are coming together, a lot of companies are coming together… their marketing is saying: "We care about climate change, we're focused on addressing the problems and mitigating the consequences…"
[22:05] Surely we are preparing in some way for some of these changes?
Daniel Forkner
[22:09] Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, that sounds great and everybody's like, taking out their pom-poms and cheering us on. And even though the United States has chosen not to participate in the Paris agreement, we see these Mayors and Governors and state saying like [mocking] "Well, uh, the United States may not, but California is!"
[22:24] And everyone is like, patting themselves in the back, and feeling good about like: "Oh, yeah we [commit] to one hundred percent renewable energy by the year 2050!"
[22:35] And everyone is feeling amazing and cutting ribbons and doing all this change. But the fact of the matter is, it's that the Paris agreement's non-binding even for the states that decided to participate. Second, it's built on very conservative science. Overly conservative a lot of time, climate scientist would say. Third, they left out some major feedback loops, some of it intentionally, some of that because they lacked enough data to model it accurately, and they wanted to err on the side of caution. And, you know, some of it because if their numbers were too high, and people realized you can't do anything, then you know, who's going to want to completely destroy their economy in order to have a chance to survive?
[23:15] So it's easier for everyone to sort of, cover their ears and scream at the top of their lungs that everything is okay. And that's really what the Paris climate agreement is. And even the countries that have agreed to it, are missing their targets by dramatic amounts. I just saw a report from the UN that we’re at basically a third of where we need to be in terms of pledges in order to meet the 2 celcius goal.
[23:38] And even with those pledges, a lot of countries are overshooting it. I just saw Germany is going to dramatically overshoot its pledge, and they're considered one of the world leaders in renewable energy. So it's a goal for a number that is artificially too low, based on science that is questionable, with countries that are just pretending to do something about it.
[24:05] We are doing a little bit... but imagine you're standing on a train track and there's a train barreling at you: and you can see the train, and you can hear the train, and is blowing its horn, and you know it's coming.
[24:08] And you know it's not going to swerve out of the way because it's a train, and you've decided years ago: "Well, I'm not moving off this train track, I have to be on this train track. This is the society. This is the course of our society. We can't leave here."
[24:24] So I'm going to build a wall to stop myself from this train. And I protect myself, but you only got, you know, styrofoam pellets. So you're sitting there pilling up these styrofoam pellets, hoping that this train is going to slow down enough when it hits your two feet of pellets, that you're gonna be fine.
Daniel Forkner
[24:41] Laughs
David Torcivia
[24:41] Well, I got news for you. Your pellets aren't going to stop this train.
Daniel Forkner
[24:42] So when you say we are doing something, you really mean... we're not doing very much.
David Torcivia
[24:50] We're doing the bare minimum, and that's not even going to be enough to hit even these two degrees Celsius.
[24:55] I mean- Let's talk about one these feedback loops that wasn't modeled. Because this is tied very closely into the Artic, and the area surrounding the Arctic. So when I say the "Artic", it isn't just meaning the ocean that is the focus of what we're talking about, but also the tundra and the plains around it. And those tundra and plains are filled with permafrost, several meters deep permafrost. And what permafrost is, is soil and organic matter that is frozen year-round. The fact that this is frozen has meant that all this carbon and energy and stuff that's caught in this decaying matter is locked there it's, stored there.
Daniel Forkner
25:31 So- I read somewhere that the permafrost in the Arctic holds, something like half of the world's carbon, or carbon soil that's locked in plant matter and animal matter. Can that really be true, though? I mean, it seems like there would be a lot more carbon matter plant material and more vegetated areas, you know, in lower latitudes than the Arctic where there's really just, what? sea life and polar bears?
David Torcivia
[25:55] Well, I mean. The Artic's a lot more than that. There's forest and, there's grasslands... and peat lands... and, there's animals... and there's a lot of land. So- I mean, think of Siberia: how huge that is. Most of that is, you know, this Arctic tundra and Siberian forest. So there's a lot of organic matter there, and a lot of permafrost locks it up, and it's just years and years pf this stored up organic material. And it's been locked away, 'cause when it's frozen it can't be digested by bacteria that normally occur around the world, and release this stuff you know, as methane... and as carbon dioxide... and release it into the atmosphere [26:33] Instead, it just gets locked away in this ice. But as the global temperature warms, and especially as the Arctic warms- which again is the fastest area of warming by a dramatic amount - this permafrost starts to melt. And as melted output [primarily of] CO2 and methane. And again, you know... CO2 is always, the "bad guy" that we talk about...
[26:55] What's the difference between how carbon and methane interplay in the atmosphere?
David Torcivia
[27:00] Well, methane actually degrades into two of our favorite greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide and H2O (water vapor). And this degradation happens fairly quickly. And then turns into the CO2 and water vapor, which sticks around for a long time. But methane itself is also a very potent greenhouse gas, and traps a lot more energy than either carbon dioxide or water vapor.
[27:21] So it's a huge contributor to these other greenhouse gases, and then becomes these greenhouse gases as it decays. So it's really got like a one-two punch, it's like a "fuck you" to humanity.
[27:34] And, so... as this permafrost melts, and these bacteria can suddenly digest all this delicious, plant material and bio-material that's been there for years, it's really huge amounts of methane. And you can actually go online and look up maps. Like, methane output maps? because we have satellites that measure this stuff.
[27:50] And you can see the Arctic it's just, bright red. And you would expect this over like, natural gas deposits and industrial cities and stuff. And you'll see little, like, wisps that come from these places... but the Arctic itself is just bright red. And that's because we are just, out-gassing methane and carbon dioxide from this decaying and melting permafrost like crazy.
[28:14] And even more, there actually are frozen methane deposits on the ocean floor of the Arctic, and in fact, frozen methane deposits in the tundra as well. Maybe you've seen these reports of exploding craters in Siberia, have you seen these?
Daniel Forkner
[28:29] No, I haven't.
David Torcivia
[28:29]They're called the pingus. And they're just… basically a whole bunch of methane. Like, this permafrost starts melting, right. And then the bacteria start eating it up- “nom-nom-nom”. And they're releasing this CO2, methane. But they're doing it underground. 'Cause this isn't just the top layer where it's happening, this is happening all the way down to the soil, you know, it's several meters down.
Daniel Forkner
[28:51] So it just, forms pockets down there under the ground?
David Torcivia
[28:54] Yeah, exactly. So, it releases this methane, and it forms these like- bubbles. And then, all the sudden it becomes too much, and the thing just [explosion sound] blows up. And you have these huge craters forming all across the Artic. And I remember a few years ago the first one was found, and they were like, “What is this? what could possibly be causing this?” and some people suggested methane. And at the time research is like "No, that's crazy that's not possible", and when they I got out there and took the measurements in, like, “Yeah. Okay. It seems like it's a methane explosion”. [29:22] And now it's not just like there's one, like, it's like almost like the moon with these huge craters, from these methane explosions. Just to give an idea of how much of this is happening, and how quick it's happening. And this is something, again, it only appeared a few years ago but it now it's commonplace across the Arctic tundra. And can the same thing is happening underwater as well
Daniel Forkner
[29:42] Is that going to be a major contributor, though? just the gas released itself into the atmosphere?
David Torcivia
[29:46] Yeah I mean, this is a major contributor to the total output of these greenhouse gases, and it's something that's increasing. I don't remember the statistics off the top of my head - I'll have to look it up later - but I believe it's, approaching or, might have surpassed, actually, in the past year the human output levels. Which fortunately have leveled off in the past two years. [30:10] But CO2 levels continue to rise despite that fact and that is in, large part because of these natural feedback loops and sources. And so this feedback loop- as the Arctic warms and the earth warms, we release more of this methane. And to put in perspective- the melting alone has more CO2 and methane locked up in it- and what I mean is CO2 equivalence…. locked up in it - than we as a human race have output in the entire history of our Industrial Revolution. So. if melting this would be basically like doubling everything we've done so far. Which isn't just bad, it's catastrophically bad.
Daniel Forkner
[30:52] Yeah, I’ve also read that it's not a gradual process in some cases, but there's a super huge pockets of methane, hydrate, huge pockets of methane... that once we tap into that, it releases this huge bubble of methane and it's almost instantaneous.
David Torcivia
[31:08] Yeah, that's a theory called the "Clathrate gun". And there's a lot of dubious stuff around, it a lot of Apocalypse people like to bring it up, and be like, " this is gonna happen and we're going to see if + 5 degrees Celsius overnight".
[31:22] And there's a lot of debunking on it on one side. But there's also [how] 5 years ago people were saying this is not possible, and there were a lot of papers coming out showing it was impossible. But, within the last 2 years I've seen a lot of papers coming out that say: hold up, maybe this is actually something we need to consider. And there are demonstrations that this has happened. Quite possibly geologically in past, contributing to some of the major warming events we've seen in the geological record. And they've discovered Arctic craters- or craters in the Arctic Ocean- of this methane hydrates exploding, that they think is part of this Clathrate explosion.
[31:55] And whew we say “gun”, we're speaking gun- geologically-speaking, so this isn't mean, that it's, it's like overnight-within-a-couple-minutes-exploding. Though some people do claim that's possible. But rather, you know, instead of being a conversation of Aeons- or even in this particular case, hundreds of years- but decades. Which geologically speaking, is lightning. If that happens, or if it's methane that we already have [been] outputting continues to output, we're in a very bad shape.
[32:27] And the Paris agreement doesn't take any of this into account. Even though this is one of the major feedback loops, and they identify this in their report, talking about how this is one of the largest contributors that they're going to- we're going to- see. They've felt like they didn't have enough data to get accurate numbers, so they decided to just totally leave it out. [32:43] And that's why 2 degrees Celsius is not realistic even with all this. Everyone's pledges and magic sequestration technology that doesn't exist efficiently. And, in fact, even without this modeling of the methane outputs, the UN and IPCC has us at 3 1/2 degrees Celcius. So more realistically with this edition of this methane, if it doubles our own output of the CO2 equivalents we might see 5 to 7 degrees Celsius, even making changes and being conservative and switching to these renewables. That's the future we might see and that's the future that the IPCC has called. I saw a report recently that they stopped using the word "catastrophic " for this, because they felt it undersold how terrible this would be but more, y'know, "apocalyptic".
Daniel Forkner
[33:34] So, talk more about what you mean by "apocalyptic". Because you said that this is bad, and you bring up things like 5 degrees Celsius, increase in global climate... but how exactly is that going to be felt on, to me living in Atlanta? my day-to-day? David Torcivia
[33:53] We keep talking in languages of Celsius, so maybe we should convert real quick to Fahrenheit. For one, just to understand how much of an impact this is. So, 2 degrees Celsius- which is the goal that that we're trying to keep on, or try to keep under... is just 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. And that's global average, so that mean that doesn't sound that bad, right? but, you know, let's switch that up. 3 is 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit... and now we were talking to just a moment ago about 5 degrees C... that's 9 degrees Fahrenheit... and what's apocalyptic- that's 7 degrees C... it's 13 degrees Fahrenheit. “Oh, but David! that's just the difference between a nice day and a warm day...”
[34:35] But these are average global averages. And some places are going to warm dramatically more than this. Some places aren't going to warm as much as this, but what it means is that there's this much more energy in the global system. That means more dramatic weather, the storms are going to be stronger, and our highs and our lows going to be that much more extreme; and we are very fortunate in our society and civilization and culture and that we happen to be, evolved and formed in this very stable time and global climate. Our weather is more stable than just about any other that we can measure. It's more consistent... than almost any other time that we can measure, which is something that enabled us our creation of Agriculture, because we have this weather that we can depend on. And as these temperatures increase and more energy gets in the system, that fact that we can depend on becomes more difficult and more erratic and more extreme. And it only takes one extreme event to wipe out a whole year's worth of consistent weather. Which we just saw down in Houston. With Harvey at West... with some of these fires in the East, with the summer monsoons and rain storms to happen there... or even to the Middle East, where we see a lot of the conflicts that's happened there can be tied back to droughts, which were caused by climate change. And this isn't like a like, “Oh, you’re trying to connect these dots!” - these are things that the Department of Defense, that NASA have identified as the [?] that kicks off all the stuff.
[35:57] So when we talk about these refugees in Europe - people coming from Syria man and from other places in the Middle East - we like to think of them as economic or war refugees. But really ultimately they're climate refugees. And this is something that, you know, we're at 1 degrees Celsius and we're already seeing this stuff. So what is double that? Well, the UN just came out the report and they asked if we continue to stay on track - 1 and 1/2 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050 - they see these refugees exploding in number. And it's 2050, you know, that's just over three decades away. And again, these reports typically underestimate things - and tend to err on the side of conservatism because it's more politically palatable but they're estimating 1 billion climate refugees by that point.
Daniel Forkner
[36:41] That's a lot.
David Torcivia
[36:44] Let that sink in, yeah, 1 billion.
Daniel Forkner
[36:44] So really we're going to be seeing not just the erratic, and increased frequency of natural disasters like hurricanes, fires, but also more systemic problems like droughts. Farmland drying up. And I feel like that's a really big concern because one hurricane hitting Houston- pretty bad. One hurricane hitting Miami, hitting Puerto Rico-extremely really bad. But what if a lot of these things are happening at the same time? we have a hurricane in the Gulf Coast… we have a wildfire on the west coast... and we have drought in and maybe some of our more arable land... and, you know, people are displaced... we have no place to put them... I feel like I could be a major concern
[37:24] Well yeah, I mean, at some point it's going to be [that] these disasters and stuff add up, and we just won't be able to afford it anymore. We're already at the cliff point because Harvey was such an expensive storm, and then we were hit by all these other storms... and the tragedy in Puerto Rico… and the stuff out west. The fires out west- last I saw were close to five billion dollars worth of damage alone, and that's just from forest fires. They're already wiping out most of the gains our economy has made in terms of GDP and everyone's going - "Oh, yeah, David. We're gonna uh, reinvest that money, 200 billion dollars for Harvey are gonna go back back in there and into people's jobs" Yeah. that's absolutely true. But if everything hadn’t been destroyed, that money would be reinvested into more useful things. Money spent on rebuilding is always a poor allocation of money. And we're just not gonna be able to afford it anymore. Insurance companies won't be able to afford it. We won't be able to- it will be too expensive to live in these places and insure your land, and your property and we're going to have to seriously look at abandoning parts of the country. Huge swaths. [38:26] And some places can't be abandoned, you know? Houston gets a lot of criticism for being built where they are... and they're paving over everything, so they have flood control problems... the fact of the matter is, we need that city there. We need those people there. Because they have to service all this petrochemical industry that is there, and we're dependent upon that. And not just for vehicles, but for every part of our society. For the products they create, the heavy chemicals and industry that occur there, that support most of the rest of the country. We need those people there, and we need the people to support that. So you can't just pick up and move everything. So it's a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" kind of thing.
[38:58] This is all something we're gonna cover later and in more depth, but because it's hard to talk about this single topic here - because everything is so tightly interconnected, and one thing leads to another thing. And trying to just separate one thing- “Oh, this is just Arctic sea ice, and these are the effects it has” - It's too difficult... So I'm going to touch on this other stuff, but we will go into more depth about it at a later time.
Daniel Forkner
[39:24] It sounds like a lot of these things are inevitable. And if our countries of the world can't get it together to solve some of these problems, how can we as individuals? and is it possible that just being aware of some of this stuff, will make a difference? and the fact that it may impact the politicians that we choose to support, the company's we choose to support... I mean, how important is it to be aware of some of these things that seem to be completely out of control?
David Torcivia
[39:50] Well, we have a couple of answers for that. The first is that, practically speaking, the things you do make no difference, and as glum as that sounds... it's true at least on some level. Your impact on the system as a whole is so ridiculously tiny. Daniel Forkner
[40:05] Are you saying I've been wasting my time taking 5 minutes off my shower? David Torcivia
[40:10] Yeah, it's, uh- keep doing that. It's good, and you should like feel proud about yourself and your community. But like, practically? the effects that we as individual consumers have are very, very small. Most of the stuff is caused by industry, most of this stuff is caused by Nations... one of the largest polluters in the world - the consumers of these petrochemicals - is the US Military. And I mean, we tacitly support all this stuff by purchasing things, by voting and politicians and stuff... and those are all things we should be doing, you know? we should be voting. We should be recycling. Try not to drive. Don't buy [a] fuel inefficient vehicle. If you want to be really serious- switch to vegetarianism. Don't ever fly - flying is terrible. You fly once you wipe out basically every other good thing you do - I say that as somebody who flies...
[40:54]But practically speaking. Even if everybody made these changes we're still, like, very fucked. Because our standard of living, the electricity we require (even with efficient things) and just the making stuff is very expensive: in terms of this CO2, in terms of these greenhouse gases... our way of life - our standard of living is very resource intensive. And the only solution in terms of this, is just accept a lower standard of living- and that's not an option for a lot of people.
[41:26] And when I say a lower standard of living, I don't mean like "Oh, yeah, it means take your bike" I mean like, you live in a small place, you have less. And I see a lot of people started turn to this. And there's a lot of people that [dig?] this simple living. And I see a lot of Millennials, you know- pursuing minimalism, having less stuff, focusing more on experiences rather than things. Those are all steps in the right direction. But we need to be more content with less. And to be less comfortable. And if we can we can do that as a society, and we can do that globally, then we might have a chance.
[41:59] But, I mean, that's... that's a lot to ask from people. It's a lot to ask from people in third-world [countries] who're less fortunate, who look up to the standard of living that we take for granted in places like the United States and aspire to that. And for us to say like no, you can't have that- we can’t have that either... because this will mean we're destroying the world… is that fair? I don't know. But those are the realities he might have to face soon.
Daniel Forkner
[42:24] Yeah, that's really well put. I'm definitely going to try and, I think the next week, gonna think about a lot about what can I do less, and hopefully that will make me a little bit less depressed about some of the stuff we've been talking about.
David Torcivia
[42:36] I mean, it doesn't have to be depressing. Except this stuff that- it's not going to make a difference. Like, it doesn't matter who you vote in – though you should go vote for people that you think are going to help you—because it's out of their hands, and the choices that they have as politicians in order to fix this, is politically so unpalatable it'll never happen. Because the answer is: shrink the economy. [laughs]
Daniel Forkner
[43:00] [laughs] Yeah.
David Torcivia
[43:00] Which is never, never ever, good at .... what politician is going to get elected- "If you work for me, I'll make sure there are less jobs!" like, that's never going to happen to it. But I mean, I'm not saying don't be politically involved, I'm not saying like - "I'm going to throw my trash out and leave my shower on all day" - don't get me wrong. These things do matter, and they do add up. But they're not going to change the course of the world. But [it's] what you can do, and [it] doesn't mean say: “fuck the world, fuck my community...” - because you're still part of your community. You're still building this community and that's something I really want to focus on in this show, and this is something Daniel and I talk about all the time.
[43:35] Is that, y'know, we're facing is global catastrophe. Something that's out of our hands. And it's something [that] as these feedback loops continue, are going to be out of humanity’s hands. There's nothing we can do, even if we like, were able to snap our fingers and you know, magically switch everything to fully renewable energies or clean energies, or like we invented fusion power- aliens came down and gave us this, free limitless energy... We still face these horrible problems, these economic problems, and these realities that we need to face. Things are outside of our control, but what we can do is affect our community around us, and make the place better for everyone else, immediately, within our lives...
Daniel Forkner
[44:14] Yeah, I think that's really important. Especially considering some of these things that we have caused in the world, is driven by our desire to consume both resources, and the products that we can create those resources. And so, kind of realizing that that's been a problem. And you know, there is a community around us... there are people around us that we can, take part in- and find more meaningful ways to interact with the world. I think that is a healthier perspective, and a healthier way to go about living. David Torcivia
[44:40] Yeah, and trying to fill some of these holes in ourselves that we filled with stuff for so long after years of conditioning as individual consumers, and replacing that back with any of the people around us- these experiences within our communities, and y'know- helping. And getting back into living with people, which is the most human thing we can do.
[45:04] I say as I, sit in my apartment by myself with my cat- [Daniel: I was just about to say-] in my two bedroom apartment with my cat laughs
Daniel Forkner
[45:05] I was just about to say that. And the more I think about it the more of a challenge it seems, or at least such a foreign concept. I know personally, as an introvert, you know... I live in a big apartment building. I don't know hardly any of my neighbors. There's a few that I see because we happen to cross paths along the same time. But it's so strange that it's a foreign concept, or a strange concept to get to know the people around you, and to participate. But it's really been ingrained out of us in a lot of ways.
David Torcivia
[45:37] And I mean, maybe if that was the case... in that we were more responsible with our neighbors and stuff… we wouldn't have gotten ourselves into this mess in the first place. And also, everything sounds so negative... and I mean, it is. But when I tend to have this conversation with people, I tend to liking it to a doctor coming up, and telling somebody that they're going to die in 6 months. [laughs] And there’s nothing they can do. And we can maybe, y'know, fight and struggle - and we can make it a miserable 8 months, so that they can live a couple little bit longer ... but they're doomed anyway. The prognosis is... bad. But that doesn't mean we can't enjoy this time. And do the things you've always wanted to, and y'know, work to make the world a better place in the time that we have left. [46:24] And again that sounds super negative and bad, and the timeline for when this happens is all up in the air. I, for sure, see it happening within my lifetime. Things getting very bad- but other people... every single year somebody's calling for the apocalypse. They say- "this is the year, you know, 2015! this is when it's going to end!"... and here we are, couple years later… and every year those predictions feel a little more accurate, and they feel like - well, you know? maybe they're right this time. Maybe 2018’s the one... maybe 2020... but it doesn't really matter. The timeline doesn't matter. All you can do, like we talked about, is focus on your life and positively impacting the lives of the people around you.
Daniel Forkner
[47:03] Look, we're going to have an opportunity to talk about a lot more things in the future, and talk about how bad everything is... laughs. So let’s end it on a good note...
David Torcivia
[47:13] We're also gonna talk about it with quite a lot more depth- about the good things we can do, and talk about community a lot too. That's a focus, again, for both of us. So, I mean, this isn't always going to be ending on a "you're going to die"- note. But you will also-
Daniel Forkner
[47:29] We're also gonna be talking a lot about the good things we can do to improve our lives, be a part of your community, and maybe we should end it on that. And, look forward to next week...
David Torcivia
[47:37] Yeah, everyone: you should go meet your neighbor. Go say hi to your neighbor if you don't know them.
Daniel Forkner
[47:43] That's your homework, go do it.
David Torcivia [47:48] Yeah, homework. You came in thinking you were gonna have fun... but now you just know you're going to die, and you have to go do homework.
Daniel Forkner
[47:53] Double... one-two punch for you. [laughs]
David Torcivia
[47:52] Yeah, bet you can't wait for the next one.
Daniel Forkner
[47:55] See you guys next time,
David Torcivia
[48:02] Thanks for tuning in,
Daniel Forkner
[48:02] This is Ashes Ashes.
David Torcivia [48:03] Bye!